CLSA analyst Kiang warned that SJM is unlikely to resume dividend payments before 2028. The operator's net debt to adjusted EBITDA stood at 8.1× in Q2 2026, down from 8.3× the previous quarter but still far worse than Macau peers excluding Galaxy Entertainment Group, which holds a net cash position.
SJM expects cost savings from closing satellite casinos to materialise by late 2026, but Kiang says that alone will not be enough. 'Without an acceleration in Macau's overall gaming revenue growth, we do not see a quick path to financial deleveraging for SJM,' he wrote. CLSA's base case still allows for a small dividend in 2027, though the analyst now sees a one-year delay as likely.
Profit and market share growth will remain constrained during mass-segment renovations at Grand Lisboa Palace, due to finish mid-2027. SJM's share of Macau GGR was 10.2% in Q2. CLSA does not expect meaningful share gains until works are complete.
Adjusted EBITDA rose 14% year-on-year to HK$783 million ($100.4 million), in line with CLSA forecasts but 2% below consensus. Margin improved 4.2 percentage points to 13.8%. Net loss attributable to shareholders widened 9% to HK$233 million ($29.9 million).
