CreditSights upgraded its investment recommendation on Wynn Macau bonds from Market Perform to Outperform, citing stronger operating results in the second quarter of 2026. The formal credit rating remains unchanged.
Wynn Macau's revenue rose 14% year-on-year to $1 billion in the second quarter. Wynn Palace drove the gain with 21% growth, while Wynn Macau added 2%. Adjusted EBITDAR climbed 17% to $297 million, and margin improved 0.9 percentage points to 29.6%. CreditSights estimates unfavourable VIP hold cut EBITDAR by around $9 million.
Leverage improved as EBITDAR rose, though total debt held at $5.8 billion. The operator has not paid down obligations; leverage still sits above pre-pandemic levels. Free cash flow in the second quarter came in at $110–130 million. CreditSights expects it to stay positive through the second half without material deleveraging.
Capital spending presents the main risk. Wynn Macau lowered its 2026 capex guidance from $400–450 million to $350–400 million but raised 2027 guidance to $750–800 million. The outlay funds the Wynn Palace expansion approved in July: five-star hotel The Enclave, an entertainment centre and a theatre with a resident show. Construction of the centre and theatre begins in the third quarter of 2026, the hotel by year-end. Most spending falls in 2027.
Wynn Macau's share of Macau gaming revenue reached 13.7% in the second quarter, up from 12.5% the prior quarter and 11.9% a year earlier. CreditSights expects further revenue and EBITDAR growth in the third quarter on the back of the premium Chairman's Club segment and a recovery in gaming volumes after the World Cup.
