Unlicensed operators took €91.6bn in GGR across the EU in 2025 against €36.5bn for licensed ones, according to an analysis by Gaming Compliance International. That leaves the grey segment with 72% of a total online market worth €128bn. The figures sit in a report from the Campaign for Fairer Gambling, a lobby group that wants gambling regulation reformed.
The GCI number runs several times ahead of its rivals. Regulus Partners and H2 Gambling Capital put Europe's illegal market at €12–18bn, or 25–27% of the legal one. National regulators come in lower still: PwC puts France at €2bn, Germany's regulator at €547m for 2024 and the Dutch regulator at €617m for the first half of 2025. EGBA called the GCI figure the top of the range and questioned the method, which converts web traffic into revenue through a 'value per visit' metric that ignores mobile apps.
The tax argument behind the numbers
The Campaign says suppressing the grey market would open room to raise taxes on licensed players. GCI president Ismail Vali points to the UK, where the rate went from 21% to 40% and the Treasury put £26m into enforcement against illegal operators. The industry disagrees. EGBA and operators including LeoVegas and Betsson warn that higher taxes make the licensed offer less competitive and push players to unlicensed sites, which carry no compliance costs.
Vali says 94% of activity on illegal sites in the UK comes from children and self-excluded gamblers, an audience licensed operators cannot reach. The Campaign wants affiliates licensed and enforcement aimed at the wider infrastructure: payment providers, ad platforms, streaming services. Dutch trade body VNLOK has already sued Meta over ads for unlicensed casinos.
