Blask data shows offshore brands captured 9.9% of user demand in Brazil four days after the ban was announced, up from 3.4% before — the highest share since the regulated market launched in January 2025.
Offshore operators held an average 3.9% of demand from January through 24 September. That share grew daily after the ban was published and peaked on 29 September. Brazil remains the largest iGaming market by user demand across 142 countries tracked by Blask.
Ricardo Bianco Rosada, founder of brmkt.co, expects mass migration to unlicensed sites after licensed operators go dark on 6 October. The illegal market never disappeared and ran parallel to the licensed one for two years. The ban does not create that market — it hands over the remaining 30 million customers who were still betting on transparent sites.
Affiliate coverage collapses
The ban covers intermediation and advertising, shutting down the legal affiliate market alongside operators. As of 29 September, the twenty most promoted brands appeared on 418 sites, down from 715 a week earlier — a drop of 41.5%.
Bet365 lost the most coverage, falling from 60 sites to 31. Brazino777, Novibet and Sportingbet followed. Stake became the most promoted brand despite its coverage shrinking from 51 to 38 sites. Betano, the demand leader, was present on 33 sites, down 15 from the week before.
Luiz Felippe Correia de Almeida, CEO of Smart Social, notes the measure bans affiliate links, sponsored posts and promo codes regardless of payment model. Affiliates dependent solely on Brazil are under maximum pressure. Fines reach 10% of group turnover.
