Regulus Partners puts the probability of Brazil's temporary online gambling ban becoming permanent at 5%. The outcome depends on the presidential election on 4 October and industry legal challenges.
President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva imposed the ban through a provisional measure that takes effect immediately, before congressional approval. Operator sites and apps must shut down by 6 October, two days after the vote. This creates a blackout for the industry regardless of the election result.
Regulus assigns a 45% chance to Lula's opponent Flávio Bolsonaro winning; he has called the ban "electoral fraud" and would reverse it, though not before operators take losses. Another 40% scenario is a Lula victory with a runoff on 25 October. In that case, the centrist congress will not back the ban, but the industry stays closed while parliament votes. The probability of a successful court challenge before 6 October is 10%.
In total, 85% of scenarios involve a temporary market shutdown. Major operators—Kaizen Gaming, Super, bet365, Entain, Flutter—control 55–60% of the Brazilian market and can survive a blackout. The remaining 80 companies, mostly local, will not last more than a few days without revenue.
Lula himself completed the legalisation of online casinos and collected R$20 billion in gambling taxes during his term. Bolsonaro opposes the ban but has said he would not allow online casinos under his presidency, though this did not make it into his platform.
Regulus notes that Brazil's black market is estimated at over $25 billion, including Jogo do Bicho, crypto gambling and illegal slots. Demand will not disappear.
