Brazilian president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva may sign a decree banning online casinos before the first round of general elections on October 4, according to Neil Montgomery, managing partner at Montgomery, speaking at a NEXT.io and Pragmatic Solutions webinar on September 17.
If the temporary measure takes effect, the industry faces 'a lot of turbulence', Montgomery said. Sports betting and sponsorship deals would remain legal, but the blow to operators would be severe — casino games generate up to 70% of licensed companies' revenue. Montgomery linked the initiative to the election: Lula's approval rating is falling, and the threat of a ban may be an attempt to gain votes.
A temporary measure runs for 60 plus 60 days and requires Congress approval. Montgomery believes support is not guaranteed — Congress passed the 2018 and 2023 laws and may refuse to back a ban if current rules protect players. He recommended that industry associations prepare a collective lawsuit in the Supreme Court, and that operators pursue other legal tools, including injunctions.
Ashley Lang, CEO of Pragmatic Solutions, called the ban 'a low probability but high-impact scenario'. Ramiro Atucha of Atucha Strategic Advisory put the odds at 50-50. Muriel Le Senechal of FastTrack noted that in conditions of uncertainty, player retention becomes critical — acquisition costs are rising, and operators need data and CRM to react instantly to user behaviour.
Panellists agreed: the market is changing fast, and operators who prepare now will weather the crisis with lower losses.
