Flutter Entertainment cut its 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance by $160 million to $2.495 billion and revenue guidance by $300 million to $17.61 billion. This marks the third consecutive downgrade: the profit forecast has dropped $370 million, or 13%, since May. The company suspended share buybacks to pay down debt.
Group revenue in the third quarter rose 2% to $3.874 billion, missing the Wall Street consensus of $4.02 billion. Adjusted EBITDA fell 25% to $360 million, with the margin down 330 basis points to 9.3%. The GAAP net loss widened 46% to $1.148 billion, driven largely by an $873 million non-cash impairment of the Brazilian business, which closed on Sept. 26 after the country banned fixed-odds betting and online gaming. In the UK and Ireland, the remote gaming duty increase from 21% to 40% pushed the International segment margin down 280 basis points to 18%. Flutter announced roughly 1,400 departures in response.
U.S. arm FanDuel, now led by CEO Dan Taylor, who replaced Peter Jackson on Oct. 1, delivered adjusted EBITDA of $3 million, down from $119 million in the second quarter. Promotional spend rose 60 basis points to 6% of handle, as CFO Rob Coldrake promised in August. FanDuel's sportsbook GGR share fell from 39% to 36%, with customer-friendly sports results costing the business about $38 million in revenue. Coldrake said elevated promotional spending will continue through 2027 and the U.S. net revenue margin will remain flat year over year.
Prediction markets are adding pressure. Flutter expects an adjusted EBITDA loss of roughly $200 million from that vertical in 2026 and similar or higher investment in 2027. FanDuel Predicts had about 140,000 active users in October, nearly double the third-quarter average. Taylor said marketing spend across the betting category rose more than 60% year over year in September and more than 50% in October, driven mainly by prediction market operators.
Group leverage climbed to 4.6x from 4.3x at June 30, instead of the expected decline. Flutter shares rose 2.8% to $86.08, though they remain 64% below their 52-week high.
