Prediction market platforms Kalshi, Polymarket and industry group Coalition for Prediction Markets spent at least $3m on lobbying and campaign contributions at federal and state level in 2026. OpenSecrets data through 30 September show the scale of industry efforts amid litigation over jurisdiction.
The dispute centres on how event contracts should be classified. Platforms argue their products are swaps subject to federal oversight by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. State authorities say the platforms operate as bookmakers or casinos and must be licensed under state gambling law. Federal supervision would create uniform rules nationwide; state control means a patchwork of requirements and bans.
The CFTC has sued states attempting to apply gambling statutes to prediction markets. In July, 44 state attorneys general called the platforms a new form of casino in a letter to the commission. The case is heading to the Supreme Court.
Kalshi paid $147,500 to the Republican Attorneys General Association in the first half of 2026 and $170,000 to the Democratic counterpart. The Republican Governors Association received $100,000, the Democratic one $150,000. The company funded attorney general campaigns in Vermont, Oregon and Florida, plus a super PAC backing Texas AG Ken Paxton's Senate run.
As of September, Kalshi had at least one registered lobbyist in 41 states, nearly all hired after April. California lobbying cost $62,000 in the first half; projected New York spending through July 2027 exceeds $400,000. At federal level Kalshi spent nearly $1m through 30 June 2026, hiring six lobbying firms.
Polymarket spent $180,000 on federal lobbying but registered no state-level lobbyists. Kalshi co-founders Tarek Mansour and Luana Lopes Lara personally donated around $1m to Democrats and Republicans.
