Prediction markets came under simultaneous pressure from the casino industry and federal authorities. At the G2E conference in Las Vegas, the American Gaming Association and executives from major casino operators launched sharp criticism, while the US Supreme Court, a congressional committee and the CFTC stepped up scrutiny of the sector.
AGA president Bill Miller said prediction markets exploit a regulatory 'back door', bypassing state laws, taxes and tribal sovereignty. MGM Resorts CEO Bill Hornbuckle confirmed the company ruled out entering the sector because of licensing issues. Caesars Entertainment chief Tom Reeg warned that weak oversight could lead to 'something terrible' that would damage the reputation of the entire industry. Nevada Gaming Control Board chair Mike Dreitzer raised concerns about underage access and activity in states where sports betting is prohibited.
The Supreme Court is considering hearings in cases involving Kalshi (suit from New Jersey's gambling regulator following a Third Circuit decision) and Robinhood with Crypto.com (petitions following an August Ninth Circuit ruling in Nevada). The House Oversight Committee widened its insider-trading investigation on Tuesday, issuing requests to Hyperliquid, Crypto.com and Aristotle Exchange/PredictIt. The CFTC is preparing to examine platform promotions for misleading terms such as 'risk-free trades' and guaranteed returns.
Against that backdrop, Kalshi is in talks to raise $1bn at a $40bn valuation — Sequoia Capital and Wellington Management may lead the round. The company was valued at $22bn in May. Polymarket hired Lisa Mantil, who spent 27 years at Goldman Sachs, as head of institutional development. High-profile bettor Jim McIngvale placed $516,000 on Kalshi for the Houston Astros to win the World Series with a potential $13m return — a wager from Texas, where sports betting is banned.
