Eilers & Krejcik Gaming has forecast total NFL wagering for the 2026 season at $40 billion: $31.7 billion through sportsbooks and $8.4 billion through prediction markets. It is the first season in which exchanges compete with regulated sportsbooks at mass scale, with EKG placing the prediction market share at 21% and sportsbooks at 79%.
EKG's sportsbook forecast assumes 8% year-on-year growth and sits at the top of the range. The American Gaming Association expects $29.5 billion, flat after $29.4 billion last season. H2 Gambling Capital projects $31.4 billion, down 0.8% and the first decline in the legal era. RotoWire estimates $32.3 billion through sportsbooks plus $36.8 billion in exchange trading volume.
Method and doubts
The $8.4 billion figure for prediction markets relies on a proprietary EKG model that converts exchange volume—Contract Volume and Execution Volume from Kalshi, Polymarket, Nadex and CME—into a sportsbook-style handle equivalent. The conversion coefficient is available only to corporate subscribers. Gambling Insider notes that Week 1 data casts doubt on the 21% share. Needham estimated consumer equivalent handle from exchanges at $2.1 billion across all sports for Week 1. Jefferies recorded $3.12 billion in volume on Sunday, with $963 million on Kalshi attributed to the NFL. Mobile handle in New York for the week ending 13 September reached $594.6 million, up 11.4% year on year. If the state holds 15–16% of the national market, total sportsbook handle for the week was around $3.8 billion, putting the exchange share closer to a third than a fifth.
EKG estimates cannibalisation at 1–3% of sportsbook handle in competitive states; H2 puts it at 4–6%. The firm itself calls the prediction market forecast 'subject to a wider range of uncertainty'. Regulatory pressure is mounting. The Ninth Circuit ruled against Kalshi twice in three weeks, Connecticut issued notices to nine platforms, and a Michigan judge banned Kalshi sports contracts.
