Europe's illegal gambling market will reach €13bn by the end of 2026, according to a study commissioned by Euromat and conducted by Regulus Partners and Helios. The sector has grown 18% annually since 2019. The research covers 28 jurisdictions including the UK, the Netherlands and Germany.
Just 25 operators control 64% of illegal traffic. The largest single-owner site group captures 12% of traffic, while the leading brand takes 10%. Growth is driven by cryptocurrency payment rails, brand recognition through sponsorship deals, and offshore licences with opaque ownership structures that complicate local enforcement. Smaller sites operate through affiliate networks.
The main driver is tightening regulation. Strict advertising restrictions are in place across 46% of the markets studied, including Belgium, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and Spain. Player-facing taxes have been introduced in 29% of jurisdictions, and 14% have banned specific products. Five markets operate as monopolies, limiting choice. When a licensed operator cannot offer a vertical or cuts bonus terms and slot RTP, players move to unlicensed sites where restrictions do not apply.
The top 1% of active customers generate nearly 50% of black-market revenue — a distribution similar to the licensed sector.
UK: €1bn driven by tax hike
Channelisation in the UK is falling following the introduction of affordability checks. The remote gaming duty increase from 21% to 40% in April will push the black market to €1bn as players shift to unlicensed sites for unrestricted bonuses. A YouGov poll from June last year found two-thirds of bettors would switch from licensed to illegal operators in response to the tax rise. The UK has 1,491 licensed sites — historically high competition for a mature market.
Methodology: the study used web traffic analysis via SimilarWeb, digital marketing data and macro indicators. Helios tracked sites actively advertised between March and May. In France, Portugal, the Netherlands, Germany, Belgium and Spain, unlicensed sites outnumber licensed ones.
