Skip to main content

Prediction Markets Weekly Roundup: New Jersey Goes to Supreme Court as NFL Pressures Exchanges

Our write-up of a story first reported by Gambling Insider

Prediction Markets Weekly Roundup: New Jersey Goes to Supreme Court as NFL Pressures Exchanges

New Jersey has petitioned the U.S. Supreme Court to decide whether states can enforce gambling laws against sports-event contracts traded on CFTC-regulated exchanges. The petition follows split rulings from federal appeals courts: the Third Circuit ruled in April that Kalshi contracts are swaps and federal law pre-empts state regulation, while the Ninth Circuit reached the opposite conclusion last week in a Nevada case. The Supreme Court is not obliged to hear the matter.

A Michigan court issued a preliminary injunction requiring Kalshi to keep sports-event contracts unavailable in the state. The order, dated 1 September, extends restrictions imposed by a temporary injunction in June. Kalshi must use a third-party geolocation provider licensed by Michigan's gambling regulator. Non-compliance carries a $500,000 daily penalty.

The exchange removed American odds formatting (plus-and-minus pricing) from its platform after the CFTC indicated the display could mislead users. Prices now appear only in cents, percentages or multipliers. Kalshi also removed contracts tied to athlete injuries following a regulator request.

The NFL has asked prediction markets to stop listing "unwanted" contracts ahead of the 2026 season. In a letter, the league's chief compliance officer Sabrina Perel repeated objections first raised in March. The league objects to contracts on player injuries, disciplinary violations, roster decisions, officiating and events that can be known in advance.

Kalshi banned five traders for rule violations. Three political candidates traded contracts on their own elections and received three-year bans. Former congressman George Santos received a permanent ban for market manipulation.

1789 Capital, a fund led by Donald Trump Jr., is leading a $1bn funding round for Polymarket at a $21bn valuation. The fund itself will invest around $300m.

Project sponsors

Companies that keep this analytics open