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prioritize-assumptions — Claude Code skill: install guide

This skill ranks assumptions with an Impact × Risk matrix and proposes validation experiments. Use it when deciding which product assumptions to test first.

Install into Claude Code · Skills CLI (Vercel) All methods and platforms ↓ 
npx skills add phuryn/pm-skills --skill prioritize-assumptions -a claude-code
Open on GitHub

What prioritize-assumptions does

prioritize-assumptions sorts a list of assumptions by the value of validating them and the risk involved. It assigns each item an action: defer it, implement it, reject it, or test it with an experiment. Results are presented as a prioritised matrix or table.

For assumptions that need validation, the skill proposes an experiment with a success metric and threshold. It focuses on observed behaviour rather than opinions. When you provide files containing assumptions or research, it reads those first.

The skill can use ICE and RICE frameworks for its assessment. It needs a list of assumptions to work from, so prepare the questions your team is actually uncertain about.

What it helps with

  • rank assumptions by impact and risk
  • decide which hypotheses to test first
  • separate implementation candidates from experiments
  • define a success metric for an assumption test
  • turn research findings into a prioritised table

Example prompts for the agent

  • Use the `prioritize-assumptions` skill on the assumptions in `assumptions.md`.
  • Apply `prioritize-assumptions` to these hypotheses and suggest validation experiments.
  • Read `research.md`, then use `prioritize-assumptions` to rank these assumptions by impact and risk.

How to install prioritize-assumptions

1Skills CLI (Vercel)

npx skills add phuryn/pm-skills --skill prioritize-assumptions -a claude-code

2Manually: put the files in place

~/.claude/skills/prioritize-assumptions/SKILL.md

Copy the whole skill folder; for one project use .claude/skills/prioritize-assumptions/

From the same set61

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Questions about prioritize-assumptions

How do I install prioritize-assumptions in Claude Code?

Run npx skills add phuryn/pm-skills --skill prioritize-assumptions -a claude-code, then run npx skills add phuryn/pm-skills --skill prioritize-assumptions -a claude-code again. The skill file is located at ~/.claude/skills/prioritize-assumptions/SKILL.md.

What does prioritize-assumptions do?

It evaluates assumptions through impact and risk, assigns a priority action, and suggests experiments for items that need testing. The output is a matrix or table.

What does prioritize-assumptions need to work?

Provide a list of assumptions to prioritise. It can also read files containing assumptions or research before it produces the assessment.

Source text

SKILL.md · MIT 
---
name: prioritize-assumptions
description: "Prioritize assumptions using an Impact × Risk matrix and suggest experiments for each. Use when triaging a list of assumptions, deciding what to test first, or applying the assumption prioritization canvas."
---

## Prioritize Assumptions

Triage assumptions using an Impact × Risk matrix and suggest targeted experiments.

### Context

You are helping prioritize assumptions for **$ARGUMENTS**.

If the user provides files with assumptions or research data, read them first.

### Domain Context

**ICE** works well for assumption prioritization: Impact (Opportunity Score × # Customers) × Confidence (1–10) × Ease (1–10). Opportunity Score = Importance × (1 − Satisfaction), normalized to 0–1 (Dan Olsen). **RICE** splits Impact into Reach × Impact separately: (R × I × C) / E. See the `prioritization-frameworks` skill for full formulas and templates.

### Instructions

The user will provide a list of assumptions to prioritize. Apply the following framework:

1. **For each assumption**, evaluate two dimensions:
   - **Impact**: The value created by validating this assumption AND the number of customers affected (in ICE: Impact = Opportunity Score × # Customers)
   - **Risk**: Defined as (1 - Confidence) × Effort

2. **Categorize each assumption** using the Impact × Risk matrix:
   - **Low Impact, Low Risk** → Defer testing until higher-priority assumptions are addressed
   - **High Impact, Low Risk** → Proceed to implementation (low risk, high reward)
   - **Low Impact, High Risk** → Reject the idea (not worth the investment)
   - **High Impact, High Risk** → Design an experiment to test it

3. **For each assumption requiring testing**, suggest an experiment that:
   - Maximizes validated learning with minimal effort
   - Measures actual behavior, not opinions
   - Has a clear success metric and threshold

4. **Present results** as a prioritized matrix or table.

Think step by step. Save as markdown if the output is substantial.

---

### Further Reading

- [Assumption Prioritization Canvas: How to Identify And Test The Right Assumptions](https://www.productcompass.pm/p/assumption-prioritization-canvas)
- [Continuous Product Discovery Masterclass (CPDM)](https://www.productcompass.pm/p/cpdm) (video course)

© phuryn · MIT · phuryn/pm-skills

See also

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