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thesis-tracker — Claude Code skill: what it does, installation

thesis-tracker maintains investment theses for portfolio positions and watchlist names. Use it to log new evidence, review catalysts, and check conviction.

Install into Claude Code · Skills CLI (Vercel) All methods and platforms ↓ 
npx skills add anthropics/financial-services --skill thesis-tracker -a claude-code
Open on GitHub

What thesis-tracker does

thesis-tracker helps create or load a thesis for a company. The record can include its ticker, Long or Short position, core thesis, supporting pillars, risks, catalysts, target valuation, and stop-loss trigger. When new information arrives, the skill logs the date, the change, its effect on a pillar, the proposed action, and updated conviction.

It keeps a running scorecard with original expectations, current status, and trend. A catalyst calendar tracks upcoming events and their expected impact. The output can be concise Markdown or a Word document for a morning meeting, portfolio review, or risk committee presentation.

The workflow treats a thesis as falsifiable and asks you to track disconfirming evidence alongside confirming evidence. Review frequency is at least quarterly, including quiet periods. For several positions, the skill can support a full portfolio thesis review, with thesis data stored in a structured format for later sessions.

What it helps with

  • build a thesis for a company position
  • record how new evidence affects a thesis pillar
  • compare original expectations with current status
  • track upcoming catalysts and exit conditions
  • prepare a structured portfolio thesis review

Example prompts for the agent

  • Update the thesis for ACME with the latest earnings data and assess its impact on each pillar.
  • Check whether my thesis for this company is still intact and update the conviction level.
  • Review my positions and show the thesis scorecard plus the upcoming catalyst calendar.

How to install thesis-tracker

1Skills CLI (Vercel)

npx skills add anthropics/financial-services --skill thesis-tracker -a claude-code

2Manually: put the files in place

~/.claude/skills/thesis-tracker/SKILL.md

Copy the whole skill folder; for one project use .claude/skills/thesis-tracker/

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Questions about thesis-tracker

How do I install thesis-tracker in Claude Code?

Run npx skills add anthropics/financial-services --skill thesis-tracker -a claude-code, then run npx skills add anthropics/financial-services --skill thesis-tracker -a claude-code again. The skill file is at ~/.claude/skills/thesis-tracker/SKILL.md.

What does thesis-tracker do?

It creates and updates investment theses, logs new data and its impact, and maintains a scorecard for pillars, risks, catalysts, and current conviction.

What do I need to define a new thesis?

Provide the company name and ticker, position direction, thesis statement, supporting pillars, risks, catalysts, target valuation, and stop-loss trigger.

Source text

SKILL.md · Apache-2.0 
---
name: thesis-tracker
description: Maintain and update investment theses for portfolio positions and watchlist names. Track key data points, catalysts, and thesis milestones over time. Use when updating a thesis with new information, reviewing position rationale, or checking if a thesis is still intact. Triggers on "update thesis for [company]", "is my thesis still intact", "thesis check", "add data point to [company]", or "review my positions".
---

# Thesis Tracker

## Workflow

### Step 1: Define or Load Thesis

If creating a new thesis:
- **Company**: Name and ticker
- **Position**: Long or Short
- **Thesis statement**: 1-2 sentence core thesis (e.g., "Long ACME — margin expansion from pricing power + operating leverage as mix shifts to software")
- **Key pillars**: 3-5 supporting arguments
- **Key risks**: 3-5 risks that would invalidate the thesis
- **Catalysts**: Upcoming events that could prove/disprove the thesis (earnings, product launches, regulatory decisions)
- **Target price / valuation**: What's it worth if the thesis plays out
- **Stop-loss trigger**: What would make you exit

If updating an existing thesis, ask the user for the new data point or development.

### Step 2: Update Log

For each new data point or development:

- **Date**: When this happened
- **Data point**: What changed (earnings beat, management departure, competitor move, etc.)
- **Thesis impact**: Does this strengthen, weaken, or neutralize a specific pillar?
- **Action**: No change / Increase position / Trim / Exit
- **Updated conviction**: High / Medium / Low

### Step 3: Thesis Scorecard

Maintain a running scorecard:

| Pillar | Original Expectation | Current Status | Trend |
|--------|---------------------|----------------|-------|
| Revenue growth >20% | On track | Q3 was 22% | Stable |
| Margin expansion | Behind | Margins flat YoY | Concerning |
| New product launch | Pending | Delayed to Q2 | Watch |

### Step 4: Catalyst Calendar

Track upcoming catalysts:

| Date | Event | Expected Impact | Notes |
|------|-------|-----------------|-------|
| | | | |

### Step 5: Output

Thesis summary suitable for:
- Morning meeting discussion
- Portfolio review
- Risk committee presentation

Format: Concise markdown or Word doc with the scorecard, recent updates, and current conviction level.

## Important Notes

- A thesis should be falsifiable — if nothing could disprove it, it's not a thesis
- Track disconfirming evidence as rigorously as confirming evidence
- Review theses at least quarterly, even when nothing dramatic has happened
- If the user manages multiple positions, offer to do a full portfolio thesis review
- Store thesis data in a structured format so it can be referenced across sessions

© anthropics · Apache-2.0 · anthropics/financial-services

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