Polymarket has withdrawn its self-certification to launch NFL player availability markets ahead of the new season. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission requested the company refrain from offering such products, which contradict the regulator's policy against allowing trading on athlete injuries. Competitor Kalshi continues to offer similar markets.
Polymarket filed the self-certification last week. The markets were designed to operate in a 'Will {participant} participate in {event}?' format. The first planned market covered quarterback Patrick Mahomes' availability for the first week of the NFL season. A Polymarket representative told ESPN the company withdrew the filing to remain fully compliant with CFTC requirements. This marks one of the rare instances where the regulator has objected to a prediction market operator's self-certification.
Kalshi launched a 'Will {athlete} participate in {event}?' contract template in February and continues to offer such markets. The platform currently lists bets on first-week NFL players, including Mahomes, whose market prices his chances of playing at 94%. Kalshi also offers markets on the return of injured players such as Malik Nabers, and similar products across other sports.
Proposed CFTC rules explicitly describe player injury markets as contrary to the public interest. The regulator warns such markets could create 'perverse financial incentives capable of encouraging or facilitating physical harm to athletes'. Kalshi's markets do not formally mention injuries but appear in search results for the term on the platform.
Kalshi's rules prohibit trading by team and league staff, as well as individuals with material non-public information. Liquidity on these markets remains low, but gaming attorney Peter Hammon describes them as a hedging opportunity for sponsors and rights holders. The CFTC has contacted at least one other major prediction market operator on the issue, according to sources.
