Arizona and Massachusetts review sportsbook draft bets
Regulators in Arizona and Massachusetts are examining NFL draft betting at the sportsbooks they license, a review tied to the Ryan Gold case. Gold, the Arizona Cardinals' scouting director, was suspended over the disclosure of the team's plans. No regulator has publicly confirmed an examination of prediction market trading on the same event.
Kalshi: 598,464 contracts on one pick
On Kalshi, the federally regulated prediction platform, customers traded 598,464 contracts on Jeremiyah Love going third, more than on any other player. Nearly three quarters of that came on April 23, the day the Cardinals took Love third. Across 38 players priced for the third pick, volume reached 2.3 million contracts, with about $231,000 in transactions on Love. Polymarket shows a similar split: $36,143 of the $141,295 traded on the third pick, or 26%. Kalshi's share was the same.
Most of the trading landed in the last four days before the draft. From March 31 to April 19 the Love contract averaged 11 cents, an implied probability of about 11%. By April 22 the price was 32 cents. 88% of all Love contracts traded between April 20 and April 23; 72% on draft day itself. At 8:21pm Eastern, a minute before the jump, the contract sat at 26-45 cents. At 8:22:36 it was 99 cents.
Neither Kalshi nor Polymarket is licensed in Arizona or Massachusetts. Kalshi answers to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which did not comment on whether it examined draft contract trading. In October the NFL filed a brief with the Supreme Court asking that states be allowed to regulate such markets, arguing exchanges 'have no practical way to prevent trading by people with inside information'. Kalshi and Polymarket did not respond to requests for comment. Gold denies the allegations and is appealing his suspension; a decision on the appeal, scheduled for September 23, had not been announced by October 13.
