The US Commodity Futures Trading Commission published two rulemakings distinguishing sportsbook wagers from prediction market contracts. Both documents were submitted to the White House for review on 28 September.
The first interim rule excludes casino and sports betting products licensed at state or tribal level from federal oversight, provided they are not traded on an organised exchange. The second proposal classifies contracts on the outcome of sporting, political, cultural and weather events as swaps. The CFTC's reasoning: sportsbooks set odds and take the opposite side of the bet, while prediction markets form prices through trading between participants. The interim rule takes effect after publication in the Federal Register; the second remains under consideration. Both are open for comment for 30 days.
NBA Commissioner Adam Silver called for access to prediction market trading data to detect manipulation and backed a single federal regulatory standard rather than fragmented state rules. That contrasts with the NFL's position in favour of state-level oversight. Kalshi immediately cited the new CFTC rules in a petition for rehearing filed with the Sixth Circuit on 9 October — the last day of the 14-day window and the day the regulator's rulemakings were released.
Kalshi is also investigating suspicious trades on the appointment of Katie Zacharia as White House press secretary: three bets totalling around $173, placed shortly before the announcement, stood to return $9,600 at an initial event probability of 1%. New York has proposed banning operators from using AI and machine learning to personalise promotions and odds. A Wyoming committee unanimously approved a bill to ban sweepstakes casinos from July 2027.
