Brazil's presidential election heads to a runoff on 25 October after neither candidate secured the required 50%. Liberal Party leader Flávio Bolsonaro took 47.03% and incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 45.16%. The result will determine whether the country reverses a ban on licensed online gambling that Lula imposed in late September through provisional decree.
The regulated market had operated for less than two years, launching in January 2025 under Lula's government. That same administration has now blocked the sector. The ban has been sent to the National Congress to decide whether it becomes permanent. Industry associations have already filed suit in the Supreme Federal Court seeking to overturn the measure.
Bolsonaro's Liberal Party won 121 of 513 seats in the Chamber of Deputies, the largest single bloc since 1990. Ramiro Atucha, CEO of Atucha Strategic Advisory, believes the party's strength in Congress will make it harder to sustain the ban: lawmakers weigh economic and legal consequences, not just short-term electoral pressure.
Both candidates depend on evangelical voters who oppose gambling. Bolsonaro has previously said he would ban online casinos while keeping sports betting. Atucha sees a path to market restoration under Bolsonaro, who would not have to reverse his own government's decisions. Under Lula, the consultant expects only further tightening.
Operators paid BRL 30 million per licence, built local operations and are now cutting staff. Udo Seckelmann, partner at Bichara e Motta Advogados, warns that abrupt regulatory shifts raise risk and may deter future investment. For smaller operators already struggling before the ban, months of downtime could be the breaking point.
