Regulus Partners has warned that doubling Machine Games Duty to 40% would trigger the closure of up to 4,000 betting shops in the UK within three years, shrinking the network to around 1,500 outlets. The move would cost the horse racing industry approximately £92 million a year — a third of all betting income.
The analysis was released ahead of the autumn budget, due to be presented by Chancellor John Healy later in October. Regulus calculates the MGD increase would add around £45,000 in annual costs per shop, eliminating cash flow entirely. Around 1,500 shops would become loss-making immediately, with another 1,000 following within two years as revenues stagnate and fixed costs rise.
The average shop generates £440,000 a year — half from category B terminals, half from over-the-counter betting. Around 30% of revenue goes to wages (35,000 jobs nationwide), 20% to tax and VAT, and 6% to British racing through media rights and a statutory levy. Since 2014, racing's income from shops has grown just 0.7% a year, and revenue per outlet 1.8%, both below inflation. Regulus believes lost revenue will not shift to surviving outlets: the market has little spare capacity and customers rarely switch.
The British Horseracing Authority called the forecast 'a stark warning'. BHA director of communications Greg Swift urged the government to consider the damage to racing and the sector's 85,000 jobs.
Regulus disputes Treasury projections: instead of rising, MGD receipts could fall 32% to £155 million due to mass closures. The consultancy forecasts 28,000 job losses across related industries and £500 million in indirect economic damage annually. Entain CEO Stella David previously warned the MGD hike could push up to £1 billion in wagers to the black market. Betfred owner Fred Done said he would close 495 shops within a year, costing 2,575 jobs and £67 million in tax revenue.
