Senator Flávio Bolsonaro took 47.03% of valid votes in Brazil's presidential first round, ahead of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's 45.16%. The runoff is set for 25 October. The outcome will decide the future of Brazil's betting market.
The first round came nine days after Lula banned fixed-odds betting through provisional measure MP 1,394/2026. Bolsonaro's result beat projections from Datafolha (42%) and Quaest (45%), while Lula's matched expectations. Pre-election polls gave Lula a one-to-three-point lead, but Bolsonaro finished roughly two points ahead.
Prediction markets had long favoured a Bolsonaro win in the runoff. On Polymarket his odds rose from 57.4% to 62.2% after the betting ban was announced. On election day both Polymarket and Kalshi gave him 64% against Lula's 37%. By evening, as votes were tallied, Polymarket showed 83% to 17%, with trading volume reaching $169 million. Brazilians cannot trade these contracts — the Finance Ministry blocked the platforms in April.
Licensed operators must take sites and apps offline from 6 October. Banks will return player balances between 9 and 14 October. Supreme Court justice Luiz Fux has yet to rule on requests to suspend the measure from the National Association of Games and Lotteries (ANJL) and other petitioners. Football clubs including Flamengo, Botafogo and São Paulo are asking for a transition period for sponsorship contracts. Of the 20 Série A clubs, 14 are sponsored by betting operators.
The measure could stay in force until March 2027 due to parliamentary recess. Lula doubts Congress has the courage to overturn it. Bolsonaro called it desperate but did not promise immediate repeal.
