Brazil's Federal Revenue Service collected BRL 9.91 billion from betting in the first eight months of 2026, up 69% on the same period in 2025. Total tax revenue for the eight months reached BRL 2.11 trillion, an increase of nearly 12%.
Month-on-month figures tell a different story. August came in at BRL 1.163 billion, down 20.5% from July's BRL 1.463 billion. Revenue peaked in January at almost BRL 1.5 billion, then dropped in February and March around carnival season. Growth resumed in April and July nearly matched January, but August fell back. The decline follows a wave of media criticism and the end of the World Cup effect.
Full-year forecasts now look optimistic. Analysts had expected BRL 16 billion by the end of 2026; BRL 14 billion is more realistic. If the government follows through on campaign promises to ban online casino, the final figure could fall to BRL 12 billion. Most revenue comes from that vertical, and blocking it would cut monthly collections to around BRL 600 million.
President Lula continues to threaten tougher measures despite the near-BRL 10 billion intake. The industry warns a ban would push capital into the black market and trigger compensation claims that could exceed collected revenue tenfold, plus litigation.
