The market responded positively to the merger between Italy's Lottomatica Group and Spain's CIRSA Enterprises, announced 2 September. Analysts value CIRSA at €2.8–3 billion; the deal is expected to close in the second quarter of 2027.
The combined entity will become the second-largest public gaming company globally after Flutter Entertainment. Revenue is forecast to exceed €4.4 billion, with adjusted EBITDA around €2 billion for the twelve months to 30 June 2026.
Lottomatica shares dropped from €24.77 to €22.88 on the day of the announcement, down 7.6%. Three weeks later the stock reversed course. Shares now trade at €26.95, up 6.9% over the past month and 21% year-to-date. UBS, Jeffries and Morgan Stanley maintained Buy ratings with price targets ranging from €30.50 to €35.50.
CIRSA shares posted a sharper move: up 37.7% over the month and 41.35% since the deal was announced. The stock trades at €19.28, surpassing the September 2025 record high of €16.44. Blackstone owns 75% of CIRSA and will hold 32.5% of the merged group. CIRSA will also pay an extraordinary dividend of €262 million, or €1.56 per share.
Renta 4 Banco downgraded CIRSA from Outperform to Hold with a €23 price target. The bank estimates the transaction will create up to €3.7 billion in value, of which 46% is already priced into CIRSA shares. Investors are advised to take profits as upside has narrowed.
