US prediction market Kalshi will not allow fans to trade contracts on the NFL game between the Los Angeles Rams and San Francisco 49ers in Melbourne. Australia's securities regulator ASIC prohibits prediction markets from operating in the country.
ASIC reminded users last month that prediction platforms hold no licence to operate as financial markets in Australia. The regulator warned Australians against using offshore platforms without authorisation. A separate regulator, ACMA, blocked Polymarket in 2025 for breaching the Interactive Gambling Act 2001 after the platform accepted live bets on sporting events.
Kalshi requires US residency verification and a tax number from all users. The exchange's terms bar trading from three dozen countries, Australia among them. The company has said nothing about international expansion — one view holds it will move offshore only after an IPO. Kalshi is currently valued at $44bn.
NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell backed tighter regulation in remarks to CNBC from Melbourne. 'We need stronger rules for prediction markets to protect the integrity of the game and consumers,' he said. The league has written to the CFTC objecting to contracts on player injuries, penalties and missed kicks. At publication Kalshi gave the Rams a 64% chance of winning. MLB and NHL have signed memoranda with the CFTC allowing teams to work with prediction market operators. Goodell's position remains firm: 'Better to wait and get it right. Integrity of the game is the priority.'
