The American Gaming Association has warned that prediction markets are siphoning handle away from regulated sportsbooks. The AGA projects $29.5bn in handle for the 2026 NFL season, nearly flat against $29.4bn a year earlier. The figure includes pre-season games, futures, playoffs and Super Bowl LXI in March 2027.
The association attributes the stagnation to platforms such as Kalshi, which offer contracts on sporting events. The AGA estimates states have lost more than $1.3bn in tax revenue since 2025 as volume migrates to prediction markets. The issue is particularly pronounced among younger consumers: Kalshi reportedly handled some $5.1bn in volume from users aged 18 to 20, a demographic barred from placing wagers through legal sportsbook apps in the US.
An Optimove survey of 926 NFL bettors found that 84% are aware of prediction markets and 60% plan to trade contracts this year. AGA president Bill Miller called such platforms 'a workaround for sports betting' and said consumers increasingly struggle to distinguish legal products from illegal ones.
'Kalshi and other platforms claim they do not need to comply with state sports betting laws or pay gaming taxes. Their actions mean consumers, including teenagers and college students, are placing bets without the protections, oversight and accountability that the legal market provides,' Miller said. He also accused prediction markets of misleading customers by framing wagers as investments rather than entertainment.
