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market-sizing — Claude Code skill: estimate TAM, SAM, SOM

Skill for calculating market size using TAM, SAM, and SOM with top-down and bottom-up approaches. Helps validate market opportunity and prepare investor pitches.

Install into Claude Code · Skills CLI (Vercel) All methods and platforms ↓
npx skills add phuryn/pm-skills --skill market-sizing -a claude-code
Open on GitHub

What market-sizing does

market-sizing automates strategic market analysis: it calculates TAM (Total Addressable Market) by working top-down from industry reports, then validates using bottom-up unit economics (customer count × price × frequency). It narrows to SAM (Serviceable Addressable Market)—the realistic portion your product can reach given geography, language, channels, and product limits. Finally, it estimates SOM (Serviceable Obtainable Market)—achievable share in 1–3 years based on competitive position and go-to-market capacity.

The skill outputs a summary table with current and projected figures, maps key assumptions with confidence levels, and flags what could change the estimates. It searches current market data, analyst reports, and benchmarks—never invents numbers, always cites sources.

What it helps with

  • estimate market size for investor pitch
  • calculate TAM, SAM, and SOM with reasoning
  • evaluate feasibility of market entry into new segment or region
  • forecast market growth over the next 2–3 years
  • identify and validate critical assumptions behind estimates

Example prompts for the agent

  • Estimate the size of B2B CRM market in Europe for the last 3 years
  • Calculate TAM, SAM, and SOM for a project management SaaS in APAC
  • What's the market size for fitness mobile apps in North America? Include 2-year growth projection

How to install market-sizing

1Skills CLI (Vercel)

npx skills add phuryn/pm-skills --skill market-sizing -a claude-code

2Manually: put the files in place

~/.claude/skills/market-sizing/SKILL.md

Copy the whole skill folder; for one project use .claude/skills/market-sizing/

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Questions about market-sizing

How do I install market-sizing in Claude Code?

Run npx skills add phuryn/pm-skills --skill market-sizing -a claude-code in your terminal, then find the skill file at ~/.claude/skills/market-sizing/SKILL.md. For other platforms: Codex uses npx skills add phuryn/pm-skills --skill market-sizing -a codex, Cursor uses npx skills add phuryn/pm-skills --skill market-sizing -a cursor, GitHub Copilot uses gh skill install phuryn/pm-skills market-sizing.

What does market-sizing do?

It automates market sizing: computes TAM using both top-down (industry reports) and bottom-up (unit economics) methods, defines SAM based on product reach and constraints, estimates SOM as a realistic share for 1–3 years, and surfaces key assumptions with confidence ratings.

Do I need specific data to use this skill?

The skill searches for market data automatically—analyst reports, industry benchmarks, financial statements. You can also upload your own sources: research reports, competitor analysis, internal data. The skill reads and incorporates them into calculations.

Source text

SKILL.md · MIT
---
name: market-sizing
description: "Estimate market size using TAM, SAM, and SOM with top-down and bottom-up approaches. Use when sizing a market opportunity, estimating addressable market, preparing for investor pitches, or evaluating market entry."
---

# Estimate Market Size (TAM, SAM, SOM)

## Purpose
Estimate the Total Addressable Market (TAM), Serviceable Addressable Market (SAM), and Serviceable Obtainable Market (SOM) for a product. Includes both top-down and bottom-up estimation approaches, growth projections, and key assumptions to validate.

## Instructions

You are a strategic market analyst specializing in market sizing, opportunity assessment, and growth forecasting.

### Input
Your task is to estimate the market size for **$ARGUMENTS** within the specified market constraints (geography, industry vertical, customer type, etc.).

If the user provides market research, industry reports, financial data, or competitor information, read and analyze them directly. Use web search to find current market data, industry reports, and growth projections.

### Analysis Steps (Think Step by Step)

1. **Market Definition**: Define the market boundaries — what problem space, which customer segments, what geography or constraints apply
2. **Top-Down Estimation**: Start from total industry size and narrow to the relevant slice
3. **Bottom-Up Estimation**: Build from unit economics (customers × price × frequency) to cross-validate
4. **SAM Scoping**: Identify which portion of TAM is realistically serviceable given product capabilities, channels, and constraints
5. **SOM Estimation**: Estimate achievable share in the next 1-3 years based on competitive position and go-to-market capacity
6. **Growth Projection**: Forecast how TAM, SAM, and SOM may evolve over the next 2-3 years
7. **Assumption Mapping**: Surface the key assumptions underlying each estimate

### Output Structure

**Market Definition**
- Problem space and customer need
- Geographic and segment boundaries
- Key constraints or scoping decisions

**TAM (Total Addressable Market)**
- Top-down estimate with sources and reasoning
- Bottom-up estimate for cross-validation
- Reconciliation of the two approaches
- Current TAM value (annual revenue opportunity)

**SAM (Serviceable Addressable Market)**
- Which portion of TAM the product can realistically serve
- Constraints: geography, language, channels, product capabilities, pricing tier
- SAM as percentage of TAM with reasoning

**SOM (Serviceable Obtainable Market)**
- Realistic share achievable in 1-3 years
- Basis: competitive position, go-to-market capacity, current traction
- SOM as percentage of SAM with reasoning

**Market Summary Table**

| Metric | Current Estimate | 2-3 Year Projection |
|--------|-----------------|---------------------|
| TAM    |                 |                     |
| SAM    |                 |                     |
| SOM    |                 |                     |

**Growth Drivers & Trends**
- Key factors that could expand or contract the market
- Technology, regulatory, demographic, or behavioral shifts
- Emerging segments or adjacent markets

**Key Assumptions & Risks**
- Critical assumptions behind each estimate (numbered)
- Confidence level for each (high / medium / low)
- How to validate the most uncertain assumptions
- What would materially change the estimates

## Best Practices

- Always provide both top-down and bottom-up estimates to triangulate
- Use web search for current industry data, analyst reports, and market benchmarks
- Cite sources for market data — avoid unsupported numbers
- Be explicit about assumptions; label estimates vs. data
- Distinguish between value-based (revenue) and volume-based (users/units) sizing
- Consider currency and purchasing power parity for international markets
- Flag where estimates have wide confidence intervals
- Recommend specific data sources or research to sharpen estimates

---

### Further Reading

- [Market Research: Advanced Techniques](https://www.productcompass.pm/p/market-research-advanced-techniques)
- [User Interviews: The Ultimate Guide to Research Interviews](https://www.productcompass.pm/p/interviewing-customers-the-ultimate)
- [Crossing the Chasm: The Ultimate Guide For PMs](https://www.productcompass.pm/p/crossing-the-chasm)
- [Product Innovation Masterclass](https://www.productcompass.pm/p/product-innovation-masterclass) (video course)

© phuryn · MIT · phuryn/pm-skills

See also

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