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oransim-causal-marketing-twin — Claude Code skill: how it works

Simulates marketing campaign outcomes using causal digital twins. It predicts ROI distributions and tests counterfactual budget or creator shifts before spending money.

Install into Claude Code · Skills CLI (Vercel) All methods and platforms ↓ 
npx skills add reason-machines/trending-skills --skill oransim-causal-marketing-twin -a claude-code
Open on GitHub

What oransim-causal-marketing-twin does

This skill connects agents to the Oransim causal engine. The system maps influence across a 64-node causal graph with 117 edges, tracing paths from budget allocation to purchasing decisions. Simulations generate quantile ROI estimates with median P50 and confidence bounds.

Interventions rely on the do() operator. You can simulate replacing a creator mid-flight on day 3 or test post-mortem allocations across channels like xhs and douyin. Synthetic buyer agents drive the underlying Hawkes process alongside TARNet counterfactual heads.

You must run the local Uvicorn backend on port 8001 for simulations to work. The skill fails without this local service. You can still test deterministic stubs without external API costs by setting LLM_MODE=mock.

What it helps with

  • Forecast campaign ROI across creative and budget variations before launch
  • Calculate the trajectory impact of swapping creators mid-campaign
  • Evaluate post-mortem scenarios comparing alternative channel allocations
  • Audit causal graph paths connecting ad spend to purchase intent

Example prompts for the agent

  • Simulate ROI for a beauty launch across xhs and douyin with a 500k budget
  • Run a counterfactual swap replacing kol_001 with kol_003 on day 3
  • Inspect the causal graph to see all edges originating from budget_allocation

How to install oransim-causal-marketing-twin

1Skills CLI (Vercel)

npx skills add reason-machines/trending-skills --skill oransim-causal-marketing-twin -a claude-code

2Manually: put the files in place

~/.claude/skills/oransim-causal-marketing-twin/SKILL.md

Copy the whole skill folder; for one project use .claude/skills/oransim-causal-marketing-twin/

Step by step, with commands for each platform: How to install skills in Claude Code: five ways

Questions about oransim-causal-marketing-twin

How do I install oransim-causal-marketing-twin in Claude Code?

Run npx skills add reason-machines/trending-skills --skill oransim-causal-marketing-twin -a claude-code. The skill definition is saved to ~/.claude/skills/oransim-causal-marketing-twin/SKILL.md.

What does oransim-causal-marketing-twin do?

It provides an interface to a causal simulation engine that predicts marketing ROI and analyzes counterfactual scenarios. Teams test budget reallocations or creator replacements before committing actual ad spend.

Is an LLM API key required to run simulations?

Real agent runs require an API key for providers like OpenAI or Anthropic, but you can set LLM_MODE=mock to run deterministic local tests without external API credentials.

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