Chris Christie, the former New Jersey governor, said the legal fight over prediction markets is likely to end up at the U.S. Supreme Court. Christie, now a strategic adviser to the American Gaming Association, frames the dispute as a question of whether sports event contracts are derivatives under CFTC oversight or bets governed by state gambling law.
He says the federal approach is costing states money. Prediction markets have already taken $1.3 billion in tax revenue from the regions, he argues, and refuse to answer to local regulators. He also points to platforms being open to 18 and 19 year olds, who cannot legally bet at licensed sportsbooks.
CFTC chairman Michael Selig takes the opposite view: federal law gives the commission exclusive authority over derivatives markets, prediction markets included. Selig accused states of ignoring federal law and said he would not allow prediction markets to be banned. Kalshi said it opened more than 150 insider trading investigations in the first quarter of 2026 and blocked more than 100 attempted trades of that kind.
Christie cites 44 state attorneys general, from both parties, who oppose the federal position. He claims states have won 85% of the court cases on the issue; Kalshi disputes that, putting it at 50 to 50. President Donald Trump has backed the CFTC. Without legislation from Congress, the courts will settle it.
