Prediction-market trading tied to the US midterms has already passed the total for the entire 2024 congressional cycle. The Anti-Corruption Data Collective (ACDC), a non-profit research and advocacy group, puts $133 million on the 2026 House and Senate races as of August 10, against $92.4 million across the whole 2024 cycle.
ACDC analysed 7,466 markets on Kalshi, Polymarket and Polymarket US. The number of open markets is up 16 times on 2024. 'Coverage has exploded. There are now several markets for almost every seat in Congress,' said Michelle Kendler-Kretsch, a research fellow at ACDC. At that pace, volume could reach $1.6 billion by November.
Activity is heavily concentrated: the top 1% of Polymarket Global wallets accounts for 68% of 2026 election volume. ACDC warns that contracts on political statements and endorsements are open to insiders. David Szakonyi, the group's director, said prediction-market odds could undermine confidence in the results if the outcome goes the other way.
The sector's expansion accelerated after the 2024 court precedent, when Kalshi won its case against the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and opened election derivatives to US users. Critics call the platforms gambling in disguise. Operators and the Trump administration argue the product is financial.
По материалам Yogonet International.
