Kalshi has reported more than 50 traders showing signs of insider trading to regulators in 2026; Polymarket has flagged more than 90 account holders. The filings went to authorities in the US and abroad. Only three prediction-market participants have faced civil action from the CFTC so far.
In the three months to June, Kalshi passed the CFTC 32 suspected cases. Up to 20 open investigations rest on its evidence alone. About a dozen other prediction platforms operate in the US. The CFTC's headcount is the smallest in at least two decades: roughly 100 people in the enforcement division, and they cover a multi-trillion-dollar commodities market. In Chicago, none of the roughly 20 trial lawyers remain — the last left in February.
In fiscal 2024 the CFTC brought 58 enforcement actions and collected a record $17.1 billion. Over the 12 months after the change of administration it brought 11 actions and less than $1 billion, of which under $10 million came in cases filed by the current administration. Senator Elizabeth Warren asked the GAO in July to review the cuts; she says staffing has fallen 25% since January 2025. Michael Selig remains the only sitting member of the five-person commission.
Rules trail the market
George Santos was fined $35,000: he made $17,000 on Kalshi betting on whether he would attend the State of the Union address. The CFTC treated it as market manipulation. Congress has introduced the Public Integrity in Financial Prediction Markets Act, which would bar officials, congressional staff and executive-branch employees from trading certain contracts. In March more than 40 lawmakers asked the CFTC and the Office of Government Ethics to warn federal employees; among the examples was a Polymarket user who made almost $410,000 betting on the capture of Nicolas Maduro.
No broad ban
The rules the CFTC proposed in June do not impose a general prohibition on contracts where knowledge of the outcome sits with a narrow group. The agency prefers to review contracts one at a time. The NFL wants certain categories banned: bets on trades, starting lineups and live on-air commentary. Platforms can pass on suspicious cases by the dozen, but the enforcement system cannot keep up.
