Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva won Brazil's presidential runoff and secured a fourth term, the Supreme Electoral Court (TSE) said after 99.75% of votes were counted, with 51.75% against 48.25% for Flávio Bolsonaro. For the betting sector the result keeps in power the government that moved to shut the market down.
The industry had counted on a change of government. Bolsonaro led the first round on 4 October with 47.03% to Lula's 45.16%, and analysts made him favourite. Traders on Polymarket gave him about 78% against 22% for Lula in the weeks before the runoff. The count turned that around: by 21:00 Brasília time, with roughly 80% of ballots processed, Lula's chances were put at 99%.
What it means for operators
On 25 September Lula signed Provisional Measure (MP) 1,394, a temporary ban. Operator sites went dark on 6 October, and federal licences expired on the Sunday of the vote. The measure was signed less than 10 days before the first round, and the re-elected government is expected to defend it in Congress.
For operators, suppliers and investors the outcome deepens the loss of confidence in Brazil. The regulated market was licensed only in January 2025, after several years of preparation and R$30 million (€5.3 million) in licence fees. Under the MP that money has not been returned.
The ban is not yet law. Congress must vote on the MP within 120 days of publication or the measure lapses. The first 60-day window closes on 23 November and can be extended by another 60 days. As of 21 October the joint committee due to review the text had still not been formed, and deputies had tabled more than 90 amendments. Some restore sports betting; others limit the ban to online casinos only.
Congress, which passed betting law 14.790 in 2023, may prove less willing to close the market outright, particularly on sports betting.
The ban is also being challenged at the Supreme Court (STF), where justice Luiz Fux is handling three actions against the MP, including a filing by industry associations ANJL and IBJR on 28 September. Broadcaster association Abert and football clubs including Flamengo have joined the case. Fux may decide whether to suspend the ban before a ruling by the full court. The Attorney General's Office (AGU), answering a request from Fux, backed keeping the ban in full, calling betting a 'dragon' that has to be tamed.
The fate of Brazil's regulated market will be settled in Congress over the coming weeks, not at the ballot box on Sunday.
