pmf-strategy — Claude Code skill: validate product-market fit

---
name: pmf-strategy
description: When the user wants to validate product-market fit, measure PMF, or plan before scaling. Also use when the user mentions "PMF," "product-market fit," "product market fit," "Sean Ellis test," "very disappointed," "vitamin vs painkiller," "PMF validation," "premature scaling," or "validate before scale." For GTM after validation, use gtm-strategy.
metadata:
  version: 1.1.1
---

# Strategies: Product-Market Fit

Guides product-market fit (PMF) validation and measurement. PMF occurs when a product precisely meets market needs, creating widespread demand. ~99% of startups fail primarily due to PMF issues (vitamin problems, premature scaling). Use this skill when validating before scaling, measuring PMF, or diagnosing traction problems.

**When invoking**: On **first use**, if helpful, open with 1–2 sentences on what this skill covers and why it matters, then provide the main output. On **subsequent use** or when the user asks to skip, go directly to the main output.

## Definition

**Product-market fit** (Marc Andreessen): "Being in a good market with a product that can satisfy that market."

**Signals**: Customers buying rapidly; usage growing; word-of-mouth spreading organically; high retention, low churn.

## Sean Ellis 40% Test

**Question**: "How would you feel if you could no longer use [product]?"

| Response | Meaning |
|----------|---------|
| **Very disappointed** | Strong PMF signal |
| Somewhat disappointed | — |
| Not disappointed | — |
| N/A – I no longer use | — |

**Threshold**: 40%+ answering "very disappointed" = PMF achieved. Below 40% = iterate.

| Score | Action |
|-------|--------|
| **Below 25%** | Significant changes needed |
| **25–39%** | Close to PMF; iterate and improve |
| **40%+** | PMF achieved |

**Best practice**: Survey 40–50 active users (used product 2+ times in last 14 days). Segment by user type—some segments may have PMF while others don't.

**Limitation**: Combine with retention curves, engagement, organic growth; avoid false positives in early stages.

## Vitamin vs Painkiller

| Type | Definition | Adoption |
|------|-------------|----------|
| **Painkiller** | Solves urgent, acute problems; users actively seek solutions | Fast adoption; high retention; willing to pay |
| **Vitamin** | Nice-to-have; incremental benefit; users can live without | Slow adoption; expensive marketing to succeed |

**~99% of failures**: Solving vitamin problems instead of real pain. Validate: Would users be genuinely inconvenienced if your product vanished?

**Validation**: Talk to users; listen for frustration; run pre-sells; check frequency and time-sensitivity of the problem.

## Key Indicators

| Indicator | Strong PMF |
|-----------|------------|
| **Retention** | High; low churn |
| **CAC vs CLTV** | CAC decreasing relative to CLTV |
| **Activation** | Strong conversion to paying customers |
| **Growth** | Organic; word-of-mouth |
| **NPS** | High; enthusiastic advocacy |

## Common Failures

| Failure | Avoid |
|--------|-------|
| **Vitamin problems** | Solve urgent pain, not nice-to-have |
| **Vanity feedback** | Use retention data, not polite opinions |
| **Premature scaling** | Validate PMF before scaling acquisition |
| **Misalignment** | Customer-problem fit before product-build |

## Product Research & SaaS Context

| Area | Notes |
|------|-------|
| **Product positioning** | Target audience; core value; competitive differentiation |
| **Market research** | Competitor analysis; surveys; interviews to validate assumptions |
| **SaaS form** | Cloud delivery; subscription; ease of use; dependency on industry standardization |
| **Enterprise / ACV** | Customization; data security/private deployment; procurement cycles; buy vs SaaS trade-offs |

**Use**: When discussing PMF for SaaS or enterprise—factor in product research rigor and ACV-specific challenges. See **gtm-strategy** for enterprise GTM.

## PMF as Continuous Process

PMF is increasingly a **continuous validation**—markets evolve; re-measure as you expand. Target "PMF for a niche" first (40%+ in one segment) before broadening.

## Output Format

- **PMF assessment** (current signals, Sean Ellis score if available)
- **Vitamin vs Painkiller** diagnosis
- **Validation** approach (interviews, pre-sells, metrics)
- **Next steps** (iterate vs scale)

## Related Skills

- **cold-start-strategy**: First users; avoid large-scale paid before PMF
- **indie-hacker-strategy**: Indie hacker PMF; monetize day one; Ramen profitability
- **paid-ads-strategy**: PMF testing (small budget) vs conversion-driven (post-PMF)
- **google-ads**: PMF testing with landing page + $47–500
- **gtm-strategy**: GTM framework; PMF validation before scaling GTM
- **product-launch**: Launch execution; validate PMF before scaling
- **retention-strategy**: Retention as PMF signal; churn as anti-signal