Australia's financial regulator ASIC has warned citizens that no prediction market platform holds a licence to operate in the country. Users risk losing their entire stake, face insider trading exposure and have no local recourse to recover funds.
ASIC Commissioner Alan Kirkland called prediction markets a form of gambling regardless of their legal classification. The regulator pointed to the all-or-nothing structure: users either win or lose the full amount. ASIC compared event contracts to binary options, where 75% of retail clients lost money according to a previous review. Insider trading is another concern. In February, the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission fined former congressman George Santos $35,000 for placing a bet on a market tied to his own attendance at a Trump address.
In August 2025, the Australian Communications and Media Authority added Polymarket to its blocklist and required ISPs to cut access. The platform had violated the Interactive Gambling Act 2001 and operated without a licence. Polymarket paid Australian influencers on Instagram and TikTok to promote election betting markets. After the block, the platform imposed a geo-restriction for Australians. Rival Kalshi does not yet appear on the banned list, but its terms of service list Australia as a restricted country.
ASIC also flagged CFD risks: at least 68% of retail investors lose money on those instruments. Kirkland said known cases of insider trading on prediction platforms are 'probably just the tip of the iceberg'. Australia records some of the highest per capita gambling losses in the world, and the regulator is tightening oversight of all products at the intersection of finance and betting.
