On Thursday, American courts moved in opposite directions in the prediction market dispute. Louisiana obtained a temporary restraining order (TRO) against 10 operators — Kalshi, Polymarket, Robinhood, Crypto.com, Coinbase, Novig, Underdog, Gemini, ForecastEx and ProphetX. The order bars them from offering event contracts in the state without a licence for 10 days. Judge Jeffrey Johnson blocked sports, elections, awards and other events, and required the companies to geofence Louisiana residents. Louisiana is seeking restitution, disgorgement of profits and civil penalties.
After the state court issued the TRO, Kalshi immediately filed its own motion for a temporary restraining order in federal court, arguing that its contracts are federally regulated derivatives under the Commodity Exchange Act and that the CFTC has exclusive jurisdiction.
The same day, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) sued Arkansas, demanding it halt enforcement against Kalshi. This is the 11th state the CFTC has sued. The federal regulator previously won preliminary injunctions in Illinois, Arizona and Minnesota, but lost in Wisconsin.
Meanwhile, Kalshi ended its business relationship with Donald Trump Jr., who had been a strategic adviser since January 2025 and received a stake worth $300,000. The split followed a conflict of interest: Trump Jr.'s investment firm increased its stake in rival Polymarket. According to Reuters, Kalshi is seeking a new funding round at a valuation of approximately $65 billion (up from $40 billion) to build a platform for trading compute futures.
Underdog introduced new trading tools for live NFL broadcasts — drive-by-drive contracts with predictions for touchdowns, field goals and individual receptions. The company also launched Supercharge, a feature that ties payouts to live market price rather than final score.
Colorado proposed banning bettors who threaten athletes from accessing wagering. The changes would allow regulators to exclude individuals who threaten athletes, coaches and team personnel. Similar bans are already in place in Ohio, West Virginia, Louisiana and Wyoming.
