The future of legal sports betting and casinos in Texas may depend on the November 3 lieutenant governor election. Prediction markets give Republican Dan Patrick a 75% chance of defeating Democratic state Rep. Vikki Goodwin, whose victory could alter how the Texas Senate handles gambling bills when the Legislature returns in January 2027.
Patrick presides over the Senate, appoints its committees and determines which bills are referred for consideration. He has said any expansion of gambling requires support from a majority of Senate Republicans. That position shaped the outcome of a sports betting amendment in 2023: on May 11, the House approved House Joint Resolution 102 by a vote of 101-42, just above the 100 votes required. Patrick said he would not advance the measure, and the Senate did not consider it.
Goodwin supports referendums on casinos and online sports betting. Patrick has also directed attention to prediction markets. In March, he instructed senators to examine whether those platforms evade Texas gambling laws, and the Senate held a hearing in September on banning or regulating them.
The debate in Texas centers on sports betting and destination casinos rather than online casino games. Neither candidate has publicly proposed legalizing online casino play, while HJR 102 covered only sports wagering.
Republican Gov. Greg Abbott faces Democratic state Rep. Gina Hinojosa in the governor's race. Kalshi assigns Abbott a 63% chance of winning and Hinojosa 37%. Abbott has said he has no personal problem with online sports betting, but has more recently expressed concern about casino gaming. Hinojosa voted against HJR 102 in 2023 and has not released a sports betting or casino plan. The governor can advocate for legislation but cannot place a constitutional amendment on the ballot or veto the resolution proposing one.
In the US Senate race, Kalshi gives Democrat James Talarico a 69% chance against Republican Ken Paxton, while Polymarket puts his chance at 70%. Kalshi also rates the probability of Republican control of the Texas House at 78% and the Texas Senate at 94%. A constitutional amendment requires a two-thirds vote in both chambers, so Goodwin's victory could change the Senate's handling of gambling legislation without changing the composition of lawmakers voting on it. The first sign of the result will be whether a gambling resolution receives a committee hearing when the session opens in January.
