Evolution closed its Brazilian live casino studio on 5 October, after the quarter had already ended. On an earnings call on 23 October, CEO Martin Carlesund called the move 'highly regrettable' and said the supplier is ready to reopen 'on short notice' if the ban is reversed. He left full-year margin guidance unchanged.
Carlesund tied the closure to politics, saying it showed how a 'populist agenda can overturn a regulatory framework that had been in place for only about a year and a half'. President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva signed Provisional Measure (MP) 1.394/2026 on 25 September banning online sports betting and casino, and said he would keep the ban. Lula beat Flávio Bolsonaro in the 25 October runoff with 51.76% of valid votes. Congress must vote on the MP by 23 November. Supreme Court justice Luiz Fux is expected to hear challenges from the associations ANJL and IBJR after the election.
What it means for the numbers
Latin America was among Evolution's strongest regions in the quarter, with revenue up 23.1% year on year on an IP-based player location estimate. Carlesund stressed that figure does not include the effect of the Brazilian ban. Brazil accounts for 'substantially less than half' of LatAm revenue, the interim report said. Growth elsewhere in the region offsets part of the shortfall: Evolution plans to expand in Colombia and is building up in Argentina, where it already runs two studios. The impact on other Portuguese-speaking markets served from the Brazilian studio is 'marginal' so far, Carlesund said.
Three analysts asked whether Evolution's Brazil revenue would fall to zero in the fourth quarter. Carlesund answered each time that the country is not isolated. He would not say whether the company will keep taking money from Brazilian players through operators licensed in other jurisdictions: 'We'll see what happens with the players.' Andrew Tam of Rothschild & Co Redburn asked whether the closure might even benefit the supplier because it is not isolated. Carlesund rejected that: 'I think everyone is stunned by the situation in Brazil. It's an absolute negative for anyone in this business.'
Carlesund would not accept a comparison with India, where regulatory change brought volatility in 2025: the Brazilian case is abrupt, the market is regulated, and operators have already paid for a five-year licence. He did not say how much cost in Brazil can be cut and confirmed full-year margin guidance stands. EBITDA margin year to date is 65.7% against a 66% target for the year. Group revenue in the third quarter was €526.1m (+3.7% year on year), adjusted EBITA was €345.9m at a 65.8% margin. RNG revenue rose 10.1%, live casino 2.6%.
