Brazilian president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva signed provisional measure MP 1.394 nine days before the first round of general elections on 4 October. The measure shuts down the regulated betting market less than two years after launch. Operators who paid R$30 million per licence must disable platforms by 6 October and return player funds. Licences expire on 25 October, the date of a possible runoff.
Lula is not backing down. "I will end betting, no matter who gets hurt," he said on the Flow podcast on Thursday. A Datafolha poll from 1 October found 78% of Brazilians support banning online betting and casinos. The government estimates budget losses at R$5 billion per year from 2027, but has no alternative revenue plan. Congress received bill PL 5.477, which would criminalise the ban: four to six years in prison for operating a betting platform, two to four years for advertising and payment processing.
The industry is challenging the measure in the Supreme Court. The National Association of Games and Lotteries (ANJL) filed case ADI 8027 seeking to suspend the ban. Football clubs are requesting to join: Flamengo receives R$268.5 million per year from Betano under a contract through 2028, Botafogo relies on Vbet sponsorship to pay creditors. Up to 19 top-tier clubs may enter the case.
Offshore traffic share in Brazil tripled in four days, from 3.4% on 24 September to 9.9% on 29 September, according to Blask Index. Shares of companies with Brazil exposure dropped in the five days after the announcement: Better Collective −37.2%, Flutter −11.5% (expects a $70 million hit to 2026 revenue), Entain −6.3%. Regulus Partners puts the probability of a full ban at 5%. The most likely scenario, at 40%, is Congress overturning the ban after Lula wins a second round.
