The Commodity Futures Trading Commission has warned prediction market operators of heightened manipulation risks in contracts tied to statements or actions by public figures. In an internal memo, the regulator said such 'mention markets' differ from standard products: their outcome can be controlled by one person or a small group, and the result is not always independently verifiable.
The CFTC stopped short of banning these contracts but classified them as 'presumptively susceptible to manipulation'. Exchanges are advised to coordinate listing approval with the agency at an early stage. Last month the CFTC ordered Gabriel Perez, a former White House teleprompter operator, to return $107,539 in profits and pay a $65,000 fine for trading on inside information in contracts on mentions of President Trump.
Mexico's football federation has sued Kalshi in New York, accusing the platform of unauthorised use of the Liga MX trademark and club names. The federation says Kalshi ignored demands to stop. The operator said it used only text references within CFTC-regulated markets.
Kalshi is fighting separate cases with the Ho-Chunk Nation in Wisconsin and the state of Tennessee. The operator is appealing a ruling that allows the tribe to apply the Indian Gaming Regulatory Act to its operations. Tennessee is citing a Ninth Circuit precedent that undermines Kalshi's position that CFTC regulation pre-empts other federal gambling statutes.
Utah senator John Curtis has called for an investigation into presidential family business ties, including the role of Donald Trump Jr. as an adviser to Kalshi and Polymarket. The National Council on Problem Gambling described prediction markets as 'functionally gambling' and demanded user protection standards.
