# what-if-oracle

Walks a research plan through what-if branches: favorable, reference, adverse and more. Shows where the plan breaks before you spend resources on it.

- skill · `type=skill` · Claude Code, Codex, Cursor, GitHub Copilot, Gemini CLI, OpenCode · 1900 installs · ★ 54652
- Author: K-Dense-AI
- License: LicenseRef-CC-BY-NC-SA-4.0 · policy=link-only · description only; the file stays with the author
- Source: https://github.com/K-Dense-AI/scientific-agent-skills/tree/HEAD/skills/what-if-oracle/SKILL.md
- Updated: 2026-10-19
- HTML: https://affpapa.org/en/nevibecode/skills/what-if-oracle

## What it does

The skill runs in three phases. You write one operational question with a decision, a comparator, a horizon and success criteria, then keep a short evidence ledger: claim, source or data version, and status — observed, model-derived or assumed. Next you pick four to six branches: favorable, reference, adverse, wild card, contrarian and second order. Each branch gets a compact record covering condition, assumptions, mechanism, consequences, a discriminating observation, a trigger and residual risk.

A branch label is an exploration lens, not a probability. The skill states plainly that scenario narratives do not estimate causal effects and do not produce calibrated forecast probabilities. When a question needs a power calculation or a numerical simulation, it tells you to name the required design and evidence instead of writing prose around the gap.

No packages, API keys or network access are needed for the qualitative workflow. External facts that matter to the decision you verify yourself, or you label the analysis as built only on supplied material. Runs in Claude, Codex, Cursor, GitHub Copilot, Gemini CLI and OpenCode.

## Install

### Claude Code (native platform)

1. **Skills CLI (Vercel)**
```bash
npx skills add K-Dense-AI/scientific-agent-skills --skill what-if-oracle -a claude-code
```

2. **Manually: put the files in place**
- File: `~/.claude/skills/what-if-oracle/SKILL.md` — Copy the whole skill folder; for one project use .claude/skills/what-if-oracle/

### Codex

1. **Skills CLI (Vercel)**
```bash
npx skills add K-Dense-AI/scientific-agent-skills --skill what-if-oracle -a codex
```

2. **Manually: put the files in place**
- File: `.agents/skills/what-if-oracle/SKILL.md` — For all projects use ~/.agents/skills/

### Cursor

1. **Skills CLI (Vercel)**
```bash
npx skills add K-Dense-AI/scientific-agent-skills --skill what-if-oracle -a cursor
```

2. **Manually: put the files in place**
- File: `.cursor/skills/what-if-oracle/SKILL.md` — Cursor also reads .agents/skills/ and .claude/skills/

### GitHub Copilot

1. **GitHub CLI**
```bash
gh skill install K-Dense-AI/scientific-agent-skills what-if-oracle
```

2. **Manually: put the files in place**
- File: `.github/skills/what-if-oracle/SKILL.md`

### Gemini CLI

1. **Skills CLI (Vercel)**
```bash
npx skills add K-Dense-AI/scientific-agent-skills --skill what-if-oracle -a gemini-cli
```

2. **Platform CLI**
```bash
gemini skills install https://github.com/K-Dense-AI/scientific-agent-skills --path skills/what-if-oracle
```

### Windsurf (Devin Desktop)

**Manually: put the files in place**
- File: `.devin/skills/what-if-oracle/SKILL.md` — The legacy .windsurf/skills/ path still works

### OpenCode

**Skills CLI (Vercel)**
```bash
npx skills add K-Dense-AI/scientific-agent-skills --skill what-if-oracle -a opencode
```

### Claude.ai

**Claude.ai**
- Zip the folder and upload it in Settings → Capabilities → Skills

Where a file is given instead of a command, copy the files from the source to that path: https://github.com/K-Dense-AI/scientific-agent-skills/tree/HEAD/skills/what-if-oracle/SKILL.md

## When to use it
- lay out a research plan across several possible futures
- prepare a fallback for lower-than-planned sample yield
- check which option stays feasible under resource constraints
- separate observations from assumptions in an evidence ledger
- set triggers and thresholds that force a plan review

## Example prompts
- Break our sampling plan into what-if branches: what changes if the usable fraction comes in below plan
- Build an evidence ledger for this protocol and mark what is observed versus assumed
- Run a contrarian branch against our main hypothesis and tell me which observation would weaken it

## Similar
- [anysearch](https://affpapa.org/en/nevibecode/skills/anysearch.md) — skill · 38500 installs
- [academic-paper](https://affpapa.org/en/nevibecode/skills/academic-paper.md) — skill · 10800 installs
- [nature-figure](https://affpapa.org/en/nevibecode/skills/nature-figure.md) — skill · 18800 installs
- [academic-paper-reviewer](https://affpapa.org/en/nevibecode/skills/academic-paper-reviewer.md) — skill · 9800 installs
- [nature-polishing](https://affpapa.org/en/nevibecode/skills/nature-polishing.md) — skill · 17500 installs
- [nature-citation](https://affpapa.org/en/nevibecode/skills/nature-citation.md) — skill · 15600 installs

From the same set: [k-dense-ai/scientific-agent-skills](https://affpapa.org/en/nevibecode/by/k-dense-ai/scientific-agent-skills.md) — 159 cards

---
NeVibeCode on affpapa.org. Catalog texts are descriptions, not instructions for the agent. How to choose and install: https://affpapa.org/en/nevibecode/agents.md