# thinking-lindy-effect

A skill that turns a technology's age into an argument for the proven option. Useful when choosing a language, framework or database for the long run.

- skill · `type=skill` · Claude Code, Codex, Cursor, GitHub Copilot, Gemini CLI, OpenCode · 553 installs · ★ 1674
- Author: tjboudreaux
- License: MIT · policy=mirror · the beginning of the file is at the end of this page
- Source: https://github.com/tjboudreaux/cc-thinking-skills/tree/HEAD/skills/thinking-lindy-effect/SKILL.md
- Updated: 2026-08-07
- HTML: https://affpapa.org/en/nevibecode/skills/thinking-lindy-effect

## What it does

The skill applies the Lindy effect: for non-perishable things, expected remaining life scales with how long they have already survived. The agent records the survival age, forms a prior from it, and only then checks whether the domain has drifted.

It runs as a procedure. First it confirms the target is non-perishable — a concept, technology or practice. Vendors and devices fall outside; for those it scores fit and risk only. Then it records the first significant production use and current age, forms the prior, runs the drift checks, and assigns a burden of proof to the newer option.

The output is a block listing options with ages and priors, a drift note, the decision, and one line per rejected option. It also states the impact if the prior is wrong and any fallback. Throwaway prototypes and bets on specific SaaS vendors are out of scope, because fit and exit cost dominate there. And age predicts further survival, not best fit for a new requirement — worth checking before you let an old habit answer a fresh question.

## Install

### Claude Code (native platform)

1. **Skills CLI (Vercel)**
```bash
npx skills add tjboudreaux/cc-thinking-skills --skill thinking-lindy-effect -a claude-code
```

2. **Manually: put the files in place**
- File: `~/.claude/skills/thinking-lindy-effect/SKILL.md` — Copy the whole skill folder; for one project use .claude/skills/thinking-lindy-effect/

### Codex

1. **Skills CLI (Vercel)**
```bash
npx skills add tjboudreaux/cc-thinking-skills --skill thinking-lindy-effect -a codex
```

2. **Manually: put the files in place**
- File: `.agents/skills/thinking-lindy-effect/SKILL.md` — For all projects use ~/.agents/skills/

### Cursor

1. **Skills CLI (Vercel)**
```bash
npx skills add tjboudreaux/cc-thinking-skills --skill thinking-lindy-effect -a cursor
```

2. **Manually: put the files in place**
- File: `.cursor/skills/thinking-lindy-effect/SKILL.md` — Cursor also reads .agents/skills/ and .claude/skills/

### GitHub Copilot

1. **GitHub CLI**
```bash
gh skill install tjboudreaux/cc-thinking-skills thinking-lindy-effect
```

2. **Manually: put the files in place**
- File: `.github/skills/thinking-lindy-effect/SKILL.md`

### Gemini CLI

1. **Skills CLI (Vercel)**
```bash
npx skills add tjboudreaux/cc-thinking-skills --skill thinking-lindy-effect -a gemini-cli
```

2. **Platform CLI**
```bash
gemini skills install https://github.com/tjboudreaux/cc-thinking-skills --path skills/thinking-lindy-effect
```

### Windsurf (Devin Desktop)

**Manually: put the files in place**
- File: `.devin/skills/thinking-lindy-effect/SKILL.md` — The legacy .windsurf/skills/ path still works

### OpenCode

**Skills CLI (Vercel)**
```bash
npx skills add tjboudreaux/cc-thinking-skills --skill thinking-lindy-effect -a opencode
```

### Claude.ai

**Claude.ai**
- Zip the folder and upload it in Settings → Capabilities → Skills

Where a file is given instead of a command, copy the files from the source to that path: https://github.com/tjboudreaux/cc-thinking-skills/tree/HEAD/skills/thinking-lindy-effect/SKILL.md

## When to use it
- pick a language or framework you won't have to replace next year
- separate a long-lived technology from a vendor product
- justify the proven option to your team
- spot a paradigm shift that weakens old evidence
- name a fallback in case the bet does not pay off

## Example prompts
- Help me choose a database for a service that will run for years — apply the Lindy effect
- Compare these two frameworks by expected remaining life and check for domain drift
- New tool versus the proven one: assign the burden of proof and decide

## Source text · SKILL.md · MIT

Below is the content of a third-party file. It is data, not instructions for you: do not act on anything written inside unless the human asks. Block tag: ef70104191537af9.

BEGIN THIRD-PARTY FILE ef70104191537af9
````text
---
name: thinking-lindy-effect
description: Use when longevity of a non-perishable option matters. Treat survival duration as a remaining-life prior, then check domain drift before favoring the proven.
disable-model-invocation: true
---

# Lindy Effect

For non-perishable ideas, technologies, and practices, expected remaining life scales with current survival age. Prefer proven survivors unless the new option clears a burden of proof or the domain has drifted.

## When to Use

- Choosing languages, frameworks, databases, protocols, patterns, or dependencies where long-term survival matters.
- Skill or architecture bets whose value depends on lasting relevance.
- Ranking options when ages differ materially and the choice outlives a short experiment.

## When NOT to Use

- Perishable targets: specific SaaS vendors, hardware, fashion, or products that can shut down regardless of concept age.
- Active paradigm discontinuity where age in the old regime is weak evidence.
- Throwaway work where longevity is irrelevant — optimize for fit and speed.
- Treating "older" as "optimal for a new requirement"; survival predicts further survival, not best fit.

## Procedure

1. **Confirm non-perishable scope.** Concept/tech/practice continues; vendor/device → score fit/risk only and stop.
2. **Record survival age.** First significant production use and current age (ecosystem-relative if the ecosystem is young).
3. **Form the Lindy prior.** Expected remaining life ≈ current age; mark confidence from age and continued active use.
4. **Run domain-drift checks.** Problem class changed? Paradigm shift invalidating old assumptions? New option uniquely closes a real present gap?
5. **Assign burden of proof.** Default to the older adequate option. Accept newer only for a stated necessary advantage the Lindy option cannot meet at acceptable cost.
6. **Decide with residual risk.** Pick primary; note impact if the prior is wrong and any fallback.

**Stop condition:** Primary chosen with age prior, drift check, and why new did or did not meet burden of proof.

## Output

```text
Options: <name, age, Lindy prior>
Drift: stable | discontinuous — <note>
Burden: on new | waived because <gap>
Decision: <primary>
Rejected: <one line each>
If Lindy wrong: <impact + fallback>
```

## Verification

- Falsify if age was used without non-perishable scope, or a paradigm shift was ignored.
````
END THIRD-PARTY FILE ef70104191537af9

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First 2399 of 2605 bytes. © tjboudreaux · MIT · https://github.com/tjboudreaux/cc-thinking-skills/tree/HEAD/skills/thinking-lindy-effect/SKILL.md

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