# thesis-tracker

Keeps a public-equity thesis alive over time: original underwriting stays put, new evidence gets appended, statuses and actions get refreshed.

- skill · `type=skill` · Codex, ChatGPT · ★ 7596
- Author: OpenAI · official OpenAI repository
- License: LicenseRef-Proprietary · policy=link-only · description only; the file stays with the author
- Source: https://github.com/openai/plugins/tree/HEAD/plugins/public-equity-investing/skills/thesis-tracker/SKILL.md
- Updated: 2026-10-08
- HTML: https://affpapa.org/en/nevibecode/skills/thesis-tracker

## What it does

A skill for Codex and ChatGPT that builds and updates thesis trackers for public equity investing. It runs in distinct modes: blank template, ticker-only, existing thesis, tracker update, post-earnings, portfolio review, sell-side, and long/short. Each mode has its own rules, from an institutional shell with no invented facts to tracking credit signals that change common-equity downside.

Sources are resolved by category: company filings and IR, earnings transcripts and presentations, internal research, portfolio models and trackers, market data and estimates. Before any source search or draft, the skill reads the shared runtime contract at `../public-equity-investing/SKILL.md## Cross-Skill Runtime Contract`, then checks the router skill map and `../../shared/plugin-routing-playbook.md` for adjacent skills to sequence. Skip that and it will not start gathering sources.

Updates are append-only by default: prior thesis data is not deleted or rewritten unless you ask for it. Every material update has to state its effect on assumptions and model lines, valuation and downside, conviction, sizing and hedge, decision timing, and the next proof point. Action thresholds carry a label — inherited, draft for PM confirmation, or approved monitoring rule — because analyst-made falsifiers are not mandate rules.

## Install

### Codex (native platform)

1. **Skills CLI (Vercel)**
```bash
npx skills add openai/plugins --skill thesis-tracker -a codex
```

2. **Manually: put the files in place**
- File: `.agents/skills/thesis-tracker/SKILL.md` — For all projects use ~/.agents/skills/

### Claude Code

1. **Skills CLI (Vercel)**
```bash
npx skills add openai/plugins --skill thesis-tracker -a claude-code
```

2. **Manually: put the files in place**
- File: `~/.claude/skills/thesis-tracker/SKILL.md` — Copy the whole skill folder; for one project use .claude/skills/thesis-tracker/

### Cursor

**Manually: put the files in place**
- File: `.cursor/skills/thesis-tracker/SKILL.md` — Cursor also reads .agents/skills/ and .claude/skills/

### GitHub Copilot

1. **GitHub CLI**
```bash
gh skill install openai/plugins thesis-tracker
```

2. **Manually: put the files in place**
- File: `.github/skills/thesis-tracker/SKILL.md`

### Gemini CLI

**Platform CLI**
```bash
gemini skills install https://github.com/openai/plugins --path plugins/public-equity-investing/skills/thesis-tracker
```

### Windsurf (Devin Desktop)

**Manually: put the files in place**
- File: `.devin/skills/thesis-tracker/SKILL.md` — The legacy .windsurf/skills/ path still works

### Claude.ai

**Claude.ai**
- Zip the folder and upload it in Settings → Capabilities → Skills

Where a file is given instead of a command, copy the files from the source to that path: https://github.com/openai/plugins/tree/HEAD/plugins/public-equity-investing/skills/thesis-tracker/SKILL.md

## When to use it
- preserve original underwriting across repeated updates
- turn a narrative into falsifiable pillars with thresholds and triggers
- keep company-thesis status separate from security-thesis readiness
- map an earnings release and guidance change onto pillars and decisions
- track confirming and disconfirming evidence side by side

## Example prompts
- Build a thesis tracker for this ticker from objective facts and mark inferred fields
- Update the tracker with the new earnings evidence and show which statuses moved
- Run a portfolio review and triage positions by deterioration and required decisions

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## Other versions with the same name
- [thesis-tracker · anthropics](https://affpapa.org/en/nevibecode/skills/anthropics-thesis-tracker.md) — 1200 installs

From the same set: [openai/plugins](https://affpapa.org/en/nevibecode/by/openai/plugins.md) — 360 cards

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