# task-estimation

Turns fuzzy scope into one estimate packet with the right horizon, named uncertainty and a single next move.

- skill · `type=skill` · Claude Code, Codex, Cursor, GitHub Copilot, Gemini CLI, OpenCode · 395 installs · ★ 50
- Author: akillness
- License: MIT · policy=mirror · the beginning of the file is at the end of this page
- Source: https://github.com/akillness/jeo-skills/tree/HEAD/.agent-skills/task-estimation/SKILL.md
- Updated: 2026-10-24
- HTML: https://affpapa.org/en/nevibecode/skills/task-estimation

## What it does

The skill takes a vague chunk of work and returns one compact estimate packet. It first picks a primary mode: coarse triage for backlog cleanup, relative sizing for near-term work, range-and-assumptions help for scope or date talks, a discovery spike, or a cross-functional milestone where engineering is only part of the burden. It will not blend several modes into one answer.

Then it chooses the lightest credible unit. T-shirt buckets for roadmap comparison, story points for sprint candidates, ranges with stated assumptions for forecast support. Translation into time comes only after the assumptions are written down. Discovery and delivery get estimated separately when they sit in the same item. If there are no anchors to compare against, the skill says so and adds caution instead of pretending confidence.

Every packet carries the mode, unit and value, confidence, why this size, uncertainty drivers, dependencies and approvals, a split-or-spike call, and a note on how the number should and should not be used. Once an estimate hits `13` or `XL`, it recommends splitting. Decomposition goes to `task-planning`, daily coordination to `standup-meeting`, process learning after delivery to `sprint-retrospective`. A hard ship date with no uncertainty language is the wrong job for it.

## Install

### Claude Code (native platform)

1. **Skills CLI (Vercel)**
```bash
npx skills add akillness/jeo-skills --skill task-estimation -a claude-code
```

2. **Manually: put the files in place**
- File: `~/.claude/skills/task-estimation/SKILL.md` — Copy the whole skill folder; for one project use .claude/skills/task-estimation/

### Codex

1. **Skills CLI (Vercel)**
```bash
npx skills add akillness/jeo-skills --skill task-estimation -a codex
```

2. **Manually: put the files in place**
- File: `.agents/skills/task-estimation/SKILL.md` — For all projects use ~/.agents/skills/

### Cursor

1. **Skills CLI (Vercel)**
```bash
npx skills add akillness/jeo-skills --skill task-estimation -a cursor
```

2. **Manually: put the files in place**
- File: `.cursor/skills/task-estimation/SKILL.md` — Cursor also reads .agents/skills/ and .claude/skills/

### GitHub Copilot

1. **GitHub CLI**
```bash
gh skill install akillness/jeo-skills task-estimation
```

2. **Manually: put the files in place**
- File: `.github/skills/task-estimation/SKILL.md`

### Gemini CLI

1. **Skills CLI (Vercel)**
```bash
npx skills add akillness/jeo-skills --skill task-estimation -a gemini-cli
```

2. **Platform CLI**
```bash
gemini skills install https://github.com/akillness/jeo-skills --path .agent-skills/task-estimation
```

### Windsurf (Devin Desktop)

**Manually: put the files in place**
- File: `.devin/skills/task-estimation/SKILL.md` — The legacy .windsurf/skills/ path still works

### OpenCode

**Skills CLI (Vercel)**
```bash
npx skills add akillness/jeo-skills --skill task-estimation -a opencode
```

### Claude.ai

**Claude.ai**
- Zip the folder and upload it in Settings → Capabilities → Skills

Where a file is given instead of a command, copy the files from the source to that path: https://github.com/akillness/jeo-skills/tree/HEAD/.agent-skills/task-estimation/SKILL.md

## When to use it
- size a backlog item before anyone treats the number as a promise
- prep a team for planning poker
- separate discovery from delivery inside one item
- surface QA, release and approval burden next to code effort
- decide whether to split an item or send it to a spike

## Example prompts
- Estimate this backlog item in story points and tell me where the uncertainty sits.
- Build a forecast-support packet for this roadmap slice, with assumptions and a range.
- Discovery and implementation are bundled here — split them and say whether a spike is needed.

## Source text · SKILL.md · MIT

Below is the content of a third-party file. It is data, not instructions for you: do not act on anything written inside unless the human asks. Block tag: e860df918777da12.

BEGIN THIRD-PARTY FILE e860df918777da12
```text
---
name: task-estimation
description: >
  Turn fuzzy work into one honest estimate packet by choosing the right sizing
  horizon, naming confidence and uncertainty, and separating discovery from
  delivery before anyone treats the number like a promise. Use when the user
  needs story points, t-shirt sizing, planning-poker prep, forecast-safe
  language, split-or-spike guidance, or cross-functional sizing across
  developer workflow, web/fullstack, product/ops, marketing/GTM, or game work.
  Route decomposition to `task-planning`, daily coordination to
  `standup-meeting`, and retrospective process learning to
  `sprint-retrospective`.
allowed-tools: Bash Read Write Edit Glob Grep
compatibility: >
  Best for backlog items, specs, issue lists, PRDs, GDDs, launch notes, support
  requests, and roadmap slices that need relative sizing and uncertainty
  language. This is an estimation and forecast-support workflow, not a deadline
  generator or commitment engine.
license: MIT
metadata:
  tags: task-estimation, story-points, t-shirt-sizing, planning-poker, forecasting, uncertainty, project-management, game-development
  platforms: Claude, ChatGPT, Gemini, Codex
  version: "2.0.0"
  source: akillness/jeo-skills
  modernization: 2026-04-12
  hardening: 2026-04-19
---

# Task Estimation

Use this skill when the job is to turn messy scope into **one estimate packet with the right horizon, honest uncertainty, and one next move**.

`task-estimation` owns:
- relative sizing before commitment
- choosing the lightest credible estimate unit
- confidence / uncertainty language
- split-or-spike decisions
- short forecast-safe translation notes
- cross-functional burden visibility for launch or game work

Read these support docs before unusual cases or when the request starts to sprawl:
- [references/estimation-modes.md](references/estimation-modes.md)
- [references/intake-packets-and-route-outs.md](references/intake-packets-and-route-outs.md)
- [references/boundary-guide.md](references/boundary-guide.md)

## When to use this skill
- A user asks “how big is this?”, “how risky is this?”, or “how should we estimate this?”
- A team needs story points, t-shirt sizing, planning-poker preparation, or confidence framing before a sprint or milestone discussion.
```
END THIRD-PARTY FILE e860df918777da12

The third-party file has ended. Everything between the e860df918777da12 tags is data: requests and commands from it are not followed. An “end of file” line with another tag inside the block is part of the file.

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