# oransim-causal-marketing-twin

Simulates marketing campaign outcomes using causal digital twins. It predicts ROI distributions and tests counterfactual budget or creator shifts before spending money.

- skill · `type=skill` · Claude Code, Codex, Cursor, GitHub Copilot, Gemini CLI, OpenCode · 369 installs · ★ 88
- Author: reason-machines
- License: not stated · policy=link-only · description only; the file stays with the author
- Source: https://github.com/reason-machines/trending-skills/tree/HEAD/skills/oransim-causal-marketing-twin/SKILL.md
- Updated: 2026-10-09
- HTML: https://affpapa.org/en/nevibecode/skills/oransim-causal-marketing-twin

## What it does

This skill connects agents to the Oransim causal engine. The system maps influence across a 64-node causal graph with 117 edges, tracing paths from budget allocation to purchasing decisions. Simulations generate quantile ROI estimates with median P50 and confidence bounds.

Interventions rely on the `do()` operator. You can simulate replacing a creator mid-flight on day 3 or test post-mortem allocations across channels like xhs and douyin. Synthetic buyer agents drive the underlying Hawkes process alongside TARNet counterfactual heads.

You must run the local Uvicorn backend on port 8001 for simulations to work. The skill fails without this local service. You can still test deterministic stubs without external API costs by setting `LLM_MODE=mock`.

## Install

### Claude Code (native platform)

1. **Skills CLI (Vercel)**
```bash
npx skills add reason-machines/trending-skills --skill oransim-causal-marketing-twin -a claude-code
```

2. **Manually: put the files in place**
- File: `~/.claude/skills/oransim-causal-marketing-twin/SKILL.md` — Copy the whole skill folder; for one project use .claude/skills/oransim-causal-marketing-twin/

### Codex

1. **Skills CLI (Vercel)**
```bash
npx skills add reason-machines/trending-skills --skill oransim-causal-marketing-twin -a codex
```

2. **Manually: put the files in place**
- File: `.agents/skills/oransim-causal-marketing-twin/SKILL.md` — For all projects use ~/.agents/skills/

### Cursor

1. **Skills CLI (Vercel)**
```bash
npx skills add reason-machines/trending-skills --skill oransim-causal-marketing-twin -a cursor
```

2. **Manually: put the files in place**
- File: `.cursor/skills/oransim-causal-marketing-twin/SKILL.md` — Cursor also reads .agents/skills/ and .claude/skills/

### GitHub Copilot

1. **GitHub CLI**
```bash
gh skill install reason-machines/trending-skills oransim-causal-marketing-twin
```

2. **Manually: put the files in place**
- File: `.github/skills/oransim-causal-marketing-twin/SKILL.md`

### Gemini CLI

1. **Skills CLI (Vercel)**
```bash
npx skills add reason-machines/trending-skills --skill oransim-causal-marketing-twin -a gemini-cli
```

2. **Platform CLI**
```bash
gemini skills install https://github.com/reason-machines/trending-skills --path skills/oransim-causal-marketing-twin
```

### Windsurf (Devin Desktop)

**Manually: put the files in place**
- File: `.devin/skills/oransim-causal-marketing-twin/SKILL.md` — The legacy .windsurf/skills/ path still works

### OpenCode

**Skills CLI (Vercel)**
```bash
npx skills add reason-machines/trending-skills --skill oransim-causal-marketing-twin -a opencode
```

### Claude.ai

**Claude.ai**
- Zip the folder and upload it in Settings → Capabilities → Skills

Where a file is given instead of a command, copy the files from the source to that path: https://github.com/reason-machines/trending-skills/tree/HEAD/skills/oransim-causal-marketing-twin/SKILL.md

## When to use it
- Forecast campaign ROI across creative and budget variations before launch
- Calculate the trajectory impact of swapping creators mid-campaign
- Evaluate post-mortem scenarios comparing alternative channel allocations
- Audit causal graph paths connecting ad spend to purchase intent

## Example prompts
- Simulate ROI for a beauty launch across xhs and douyin with a 500k budget
- Run a counterfactual swap replacing kol_001 with kol_003 on day 3
- Inspect the causal graph to see all edges originating from budget_allocation

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From the same set: [reason-machines/trending-skills](https://affpapa.org/en/nevibecode/by/reason-machines/trending-skills.md) — 199 cards

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