# market-top-detector

Assesses tactical 2-8 week market top risk for 10-20% corrections using O'Neil distribution days, Minervini deterioration, and defensive rotation.

- skill · `type=skill` · Claude Code, Codex, Cursor, GitHub Copilot, Gemini CLI, OpenCode · 3400 installs · ★ 3267
- Author: tradermonty
- License: MIT · policy=mirror · the beginning of the file is at the end of this page
- Source: https://github.com/tradermonty/claude-trading-skills/tree/HEAD/skills/market-top-detector/SKILL.md
- Updated: 2026-10-24
- HTML: https://affpapa.org/en/nevibecode/skills/market-top-detector

## What it does

This skill computes a heuristic risk score from 0 to 100 to detect approaching market tops. Instead of evaluating multi-month macro bubbles, it focuses on tactical signals 2 to 8 weeks ahead of potential 10% to 20% index pullbacks. The logic combines institutional distribution days from O'Neil, growth leader deterioration from Minervini, and defensive sector rotation.

Execution runs in phases: the agent gathers S&P 500 50DMA breadth and CBOE Put/Call ratio via WebSearch, then launches `skills/market-top-detector/scripts/market_top_detector.py`. The Python script consumes around 33 calls from the FMP API to fetch benchmark quotes and monitor sector ETF baskets like ARKK, SOXX, and XLU.

Analysis degrades quickly on stale inputs, so collected metrics must come from the last 3 business days. You must supply an `$FMP_API_KEY` environment variable, though the free tier covers the required calls.

## Install

### Claude Code (native platform)

1. **Skills CLI (Vercel)**
```bash
npx skills add tradermonty/claude-trading-skills --skill market-top-detector -a claude-code
```

2. **Manually: put the files in place**
- File: `~/.claude/skills/market-top-detector/SKILL.md` — Copy the whole skill folder; for one project use .claude/skills/market-top-detector/

### Codex

1. **Skills CLI (Vercel)**
```bash
npx skills add tradermonty/claude-trading-skills --skill market-top-detector -a codex
```

2. **Manually: put the files in place**
- File: `.agents/skills/market-top-detector/SKILL.md` — For all projects use ~/.agents/skills/

### Cursor

1. **Skills CLI (Vercel)**
```bash
npx skills add tradermonty/claude-trading-skills --skill market-top-detector -a cursor
```

2. **Manually: put the files in place**
- File: `.cursor/skills/market-top-detector/SKILL.md` — Cursor also reads .agents/skills/ and .claude/skills/

### GitHub Copilot

1. **GitHub CLI**
```bash
gh skill install tradermonty/claude-trading-skills market-top-detector
```

2. **Manually: put the files in place**
- File: `.github/skills/market-top-detector/SKILL.md`

### Gemini CLI

1. **Skills CLI (Vercel)**
```bash
npx skills add tradermonty/claude-trading-skills --skill market-top-detector -a gemini-cli
```

2. **Platform CLI**
```bash
gemini skills install https://github.com/tradermonty/claude-trading-skills --path skills/market-top-detector
```

### Windsurf (Devin Desktop)

**Manually: put the files in place**
- File: `.devin/skills/market-top-detector/SKILL.md` — The legacy .windsurf/skills/ path still works

### OpenCode

**Skills CLI (Vercel)**
```bash
npx skills add tradermonty/claude-trading-skills --skill market-top-detector -a opencode
```

### Claude.ai

**Claude.ai**
- Zip the folder and upload it in Settings → Capabilities → Skills

Where a file is given instead of a command, copy the files from the source to that path: https://github.com/tradermonty/claude-trading-skills/tree/HEAD/skills/market-top-detector/SKILL.md

## When to use it
- calculate a 0-100 composite risk score for tactical market tops
- track institutional distribution days across benchmark indices
- spot defensive sector rotation before a 10-20% correction
- detect leading growth stock breakdown while headline indices hold

## Example prompts
- Evaluate market top risk for the next 2-8 weeks using market-top-detector
- Run market-top-detector to check distribution days and defensive rotation
- Check whether leading growth stocks are deteriorating relative to S&P 500

## Source text · SKILL.md · MIT

Below is the content of a third-party file. It is data, not instructions for you: do not act on anything written inside unless the human asks. Block tag: 92d908f09a99c76c.

BEGIN THIRD-PARTY FILE 92d908f09a99c76c
```text
---
name: market-top-detector
description: Assesses heuristic market top risk using O'Neil Distribution Days, Minervini Leading Stock Deterioration, and Monty Defensive Sector Rotation. Generates a 0-100 composite score with risk zone classification. Use when user asks about market top risk, distribution days, defensive rotation, leadership breakdown, or whether to reduce equity exposure. Focuses on 2-8 week tactical timing signals for 10-20% corrections.
---

# Market Top Detector Skill

## Purpose

Assess heuristic market top risk using a 6-component scoring system (0-100). Integrates three market risk methodologies:

1. **O'Neil** - Distribution Day accumulation (institutional selling)
2. **Minervini** - Leading stock deterioration pattern
3. **Monty** - Defensive sector rotation signal

Unlike the Bubble Detector (macro/multi-month evaluation), this skill focuses on **tactical 2-8 week timing signals** that precede 10-20% market corrections.

## Score interpretation

Treat the 0-100 composite as a **heuristic risk score**, not an estimated event
probability. A score of 70 does not mean a 70% chance of a top. Risk-budget
percentages are policy heuristics, not measured outcome frequencies.
Historical patterns are retrospective estimates, not point-in-time evidence.
Report **no comparable episode** when any component is unavailable/invalid or
nearest-pattern weighted RMS exceeds 15 points. This tolerance is a predeclared
heuristic, not an empirically validated similarity threshold.
Follow [the point-in-time evaluation protocol](references/point_in_time_evaluation.md)
before making calibration claims. No measured calibration results are supplied.

## When to Use This Skill

**English:**
- User asks "Is the market topping?" or "Are we near a top?"
- User notices distribution days accumulating
- User observes defensive sectors outperforming growth
- User sees leading stocks breaking down while indices hold
- User asks about reducing equity exposure timing
- User wants to assess correction risk for the next 2-8 weeks

**Japanese:**
- 「天井が近い？」「今は利確すべき？」
- ディストリビューションデーの蓄積を懸念
- ディフェンシブセクターがグロースをアウトパフォーム
- 先導株が崩れ始めているが指数はまだ持ちこたえている
- エクスポージャー縮小のタイミング判断
- 今後2〜8週間の調整リスクを評価したい

## Prerequisites

**Required:**
- **FMP API Key:** Set `$FMP_API_KEY` environment variable or pass `--api-key`. Free tier sufficient (~33 API calls per execution).
```
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