# know-if-its-working

Audits developer tool go-to-market performance using retention cohorts and the DREAM funnel. Useful when stars grow but users churn.

- skill · `type=skill` · Claude Code, Codex, Cursor, GitHub Copilot, Gemini CLI, OpenCode · ★ 327
- Author: AIDevGTM
- License: MIT · policy=mirror · the beginning of the file is at the end of this page
- Source: https://github.com/AIDevGTM/gtm-cofounder/tree/HEAD/skills/15-know-if-its-working/SKILL.md
- Updated: 2026-10-19
- HTML: https://affpapa.org/en/nevibecode/skills/know-if-its-working

## What it does

This skill implements developer-focused go-to-market analysis based on frameworks by Adam Frankl and Jakub Czakon. It replaces vanity figures like GitHub stars or site impressions with net developer retention. The target threshold sits above 100%, where cohorts expand through internal adoption.

The workflow uses the DREAM funnel to measure one specific metric per phase: discovery visitors, community follows, free-tier signups, monthly active usage, and active forum posters. The key gate is the weekend test. A new developer must reach first value from documentation alone in under an hour, or one day at most. Scaling paid channels before passing this test wastes budget on churn.

Attribution relies on directional trends rather than fragile click tracking. It suggests adding a free-text question to registration, since direct signups often obscure months of lurking after reading a tutorial.

## Install

### Claude Code (native platform)

1. **Skills CLI (Vercel)**
```bash
npx skills add AIDevGTM/gtm-cofounder --skill 15-know-if-its-working -a claude-code
```

2. **Manually: put the files in place**
- File: `~/.claude/skills/15-know-if-its-working/SKILL.md` — Copy the whole skill folder; for one project use .claude/skills/15-know-if-its-working/

### Codex

1. **Skills CLI (Vercel)**
```bash
npx skills add AIDevGTM/gtm-cofounder --skill 15-know-if-its-working -a codex
```

2. **Manually: put the files in place**
- File: `.agents/skills/15-know-if-its-working/SKILL.md` — For all projects use ~/.agents/skills/

### Cursor

1. **Skills CLI (Vercel)**
```bash
npx skills add AIDevGTM/gtm-cofounder --skill 15-know-if-its-working -a cursor
```

2. **Manually: put the files in place**
- File: `.cursor/skills/15-know-if-its-working/SKILL.md` — Cursor also reads .agents/skills/ and .claude/skills/

### GitHub Copilot

1. **GitHub CLI**
```bash
gh skill install AIDevGTM/gtm-cofounder 15-know-if-its-working
```

2. **Manually: put the files in place**
- File: `.github/skills/15-know-if-its-working/SKILL.md`

### Gemini CLI

1. **Skills CLI (Vercel)**
```bash
npx skills add AIDevGTM/gtm-cofounder --skill 15-know-if-its-working -a gemini-cli
```

2. **Platform CLI**
```bash
gemini skills install https://github.com/AIDevGTM/gtm-cofounder --path skills/15-know-if-its-working
```

### Windsurf (Devin Desktop)

**Manually: put the files in place**
- File: `.devin/skills/15-know-if-its-working/SKILL.md` — The legacy .windsurf/skills/ path still works

### OpenCode

**Skills CLI (Vercel)**
```bash
npx skills add AIDevGTM/gtm-cofounder --skill 15-know-if-its-working -a opencode
```

### Claude.ai

**Claude.ai**
- Zip the folder and upload it in Settings → Capabilities → Skills

Where a file is given instead of a command, copy the files from the source to that path: https://github.com/AIDevGTM/gtm-cofounder/tree/HEAD/skills/15-know-if-its-working/SKILL.md

## When to use it
- calculate net developer retention across monthly cohorts
- evaluate user onboarding using the weekend test
- replace vanity metrics with honest DREAM funnel signals
- identify whether acquisition spending makes sense right now

## Example prompts
- Check our dev-tool metrics against the DREAM framework
- Calculate cohort retention for users who joined 8 weeks ago
- Audit our onboarding flow against the weekend test criteria

## Source text · SKILL.md · MIT

Below is the content of a third-party file. It is data, not instructions for you: do not act on anything written inside unless the human asks. Block tag: 0c6a2961ed733865.

BEGIN THIRD-PARTY FILE 0c6a2961ed733865
````text
---
name: know-if-its-working
description: Measure GTM with the metrics that matter (net developer retention, DREAM funnel) instead of vanity numbers. Use when the user has dashboards full of stars and pageviews but can't tell if go-to-market is working, or is optimizing acquisition over a leaky bucket.
---

# Know if it's working

> The only early metric that matters is **net developer retention**. Without it, you're not running a funnel; you're running a colander.

**Use this when:** you're tracking GitHub stars and pageviews and still can't answer "is GTM working?", or you're pouring effort into acquisition while new users quietly churn.

## The core idea

Acquisition is worthless if users don't come back. Prove **retention** first; only then does spending on **acquisition** make sense. Most early founders optimize the top of the funnel while the bottom leaks. Fix that order.

## Framework: net developer retention (Frankl)

> Of all the developers who first used the product in **Month 1**, how many used it in **Month 2? Month 3?**

- Hold it **above 100%** (meaning existing cohorts *grow* through internal referral/expansion).
- Below solid retention, **do not focus on acquisition**: you're filling a leaky bucket.
- This single cohort question tells you more than every vanity chart combined.

## Framework: the DREAM metrics (Frankl)

Measure one honest number per stage, not pageviews, not stars.

| Stage | The metric that counts |
|---|---|
| **Discovery** | unique human visitors / month |
| **Research** | newsletter subs + community joins + follows |
| **Evaluation** | free-tier signups / downloads / active free users |
| **Activation** | monthly active users · frequency · session depth |
| **Membership** | community members *actively* posting & answering |

**The gate before all of it, the weekend test:** can a new developer get to first value **over a weekend from docs + Stack Overflow, no support call?** Time-to-value target: **< 1 hour ideal, 1 day max.** If Evaluation/Activation fails here, no channel work will save you.

## Growth benchmarks (non-ARR, Frankl)

- **Pre-seed:** ~30% month-over-month user growth
- **Post-Series-A:** ~10% MoM
- **First $1M ARR:** within 12 months is good, 9 is excellent

## Framework: attribution philosophy (Czakon)

Developer marketing is **hard to attribute and that's normal.** A dev sees your HN post, reads a tutorial, lurks for two months, then signs up direct.
- Don't over-trust last-touch; it will tell you "direct/organic" and hide the real work.
- Add a **"how did you hear about us?"** free-text field. Self-reported attribution beats a broken model.
- Judge channels on *trend* and *directional* signal, not spurious precision.

## Decision tree: what to fix first

```
````
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First 2763 of 4231 bytes. © AIDevGTM · MIT · https://github.com/AIDevGTM/gtm-cofounder/tree/HEAD/skills/15-know-if-its-working/SKILL.md

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