# btc-bottom-model

Evaluates Bitcoin market cycle positioning using 13 weighted indicators. Generates a 0-100 Market Heat Score for cycle accumulation and profit taking.

- skill · `type=skill` · Claude Code, Codex, Cursor, GitHub Copilot, Gemini CLI, OpenCode · 525 installs · ★ 1060
- Author: star23
- License: MIT · policy=mirror · the beginning of the file is at the end of this page
- Source: https://github.com/star23/Day1Global-Skills/tree/HEAD/btc-bottom-model/SKILL.md
- Updated: 2026-08-18
- HTML: https://affpapa.org/en/nevibecode/skills/btc-bottom-model

## What it does

The skill produces a composite Market Heat Score from 0 (extreme fear) to 100 (extreme greed). It separates 13 metrics into two distinct tiers. Daily Pulse carries 32 points across four fast-moving indicators: spot ETF net flows, perpetual funding rates, the long/short ratio, and the Fear & Greed Index.

The remaining 68 points belong to the Weekly Structure category with nine slower on-chain metrics, such as LTH-MVRV, NUPL, SOPR, and moving average multiples. The agent relies directly on `web_search` to fetch live data points before normalizing them. If the agent lacks web browsing capability, this scoring model cannot function.

## Install

### Claude Code (native platform)

1. **Skills CLI (Vercel)**
```bash
npx skills add star23/Day1Global-Skills --skill btc-bottom-model -a claude-code
```

2. **Manually: put the files in place**
- File: `~/.claude/skills/btc-bottom-model/SKILL.md` — Copy the whole skill folder; for one project use .claude/skills/btc-bottom-model/

### Codex

1. **Skills CLI (Vercel)**
```bash
npx skills add star23/Day1Global-Skills --skill btc-bottom-model -a codex
```

2. **Manually: put the files in place**
- File: `.agents/skills/btc-bottom-model/SKILL.md` — For all projects use ~/.agents/skills/

### Cursor

1. **Skills CLI (Vercel)**
```bash
npx skills add star23/Day1Global-Skills --skill btc-bottom-model -a cursor
```

2. **Manually: put the files in place**
- File: `.cursor/skills/btc-bottom-model/SKILL.md` — Cursor also reads .agents/skills/ and .claude/skills/

### GitHub Copilot

1. **GitHub CLI**
```bash
gh skill install star23/Day1Global-Skills btc-bottom-model
```

2. **Manually: put the files in place**
- File: `.github/skills/btc-bottom-model/SKILL.md`

### Gemini CLI

1. **Skills CLI (Vercel)**
```bash
npx skills add star23/Day1Global-Skills --skill btc-bottom-model -a gemini-cli
```

2. **Platform CLI**
```bash
gemini skills install https://github.com/star23/Day1Global-Skills --path btc-bottom-model
```

### Windsurf (Devin Desktop)

**Manually: put the files in place**
- File: `.devin/skills/btc-bottom-model/SKILL.md` — The legacy .windsurf/skills/ path still works

### OpenCode

**Skills CLI (Vercel)**
```bash
npx skills add star23/Day1Global-Skills --skill btc-bottom-model -a opencode
```

### Claude.ai

**Claude.ai**
- Zip the folder and upload it in Settings → Capabilities → Skills

Where a file is given instead of a command, copy the files from the source to that path: https://github.com/star23/Day1Global-Skills/tree/HEAD/btc-bottom-model/SKILL.md

## When to use it
- evaluate Bitcoin position within the broader market cycle
- compute a composite 0-100 Market Heat Score from market metrics
- track daily spot ETF flows and derivatives funding leverage
- assess long-term holder profitability via LTH-MVRV and on-chain indicators

## Example prompts
- Run btc-bottom-model to evaluate where Bitcoin sits in the current cycle
- Check current BTC ETF flows and funding rates to see if the market is overheated
- What does the 13-indicator cycle model say about buying Bitcoin right now?

## Source text · SKILL.md · MIT

Below is the content of a third-party file. It is data, not instructions for you: do not act on anything written inside unless the human asks. Block tag: 7a0bcde2b380f0ac.

BEGIN THIRD-PARTY FILE 7a0bcde2b380f0ac
```text
---
name: btc-bottom-model
description: Bitcoin cycle timing model with weighted scoring system. Tracks 13 indicators across 2 categories — Daily Pulse (4 indicators, 32 points) and Weekly Structure (9 indicators, 68 points) — producing a composite 0-100 Market Heat Score. Covers ETF flows, funding rate, long/short ratio, fear & greed index, LTH-MVRV, NUPL, SOPR (LTH + STH), LTH supply %, moving average multiples (365d MA, 200w MA), weekly RSI, and volume trends. Provides both buy AND sell recommendations across the full market cycle. Use this skill when users mention Bitcoin bottom-fishing, BTC cycle position, whether to buy or sell BTC, on-chain metrics, MVRV, NUPL, SOPR, LTH behavior, ETF inflows/outflows, funding rates, fear index, whether Bitcoin is overheated, miner cost, crypto market sentiment, BTC position sizing, or any question like "Should I buy Bitcoin now?" or "Is BTC topping out?" or "What do on-chain indicators say?"
---

# Bitcoin Cycle Timing Model (BTC Market Heat Scoring System)

This skill helps you systematically assess where Bitcoin sits in its market cycle — from extreme fear (accumulation opportunity) to extreme greed (distribution/exit signal). Through a weighted evaluation of 13 on-chain, sentiment, and market indicators, it produces a 0-100 **Market Heat Score** and actionable buy/sell recommendations.

## Use Cases

Use this skill when users ask the following types of questions:
- Has Bitcoin bottomed out / Can I buy the dip
- Is Bitcoin overheated / Should I take profits
- Where is BTC in the current cycle
- Do on-chain data support building or reducing a position
- What are long-term holders doing / Are ETFs buying or selling
- Is leverage too high / Is the market too greedy

## Scoring System Overview

The model uses a **weighted composite score from 0 to 100**:

- **0 = Extreme Fear** (historically the best buying opportunities)
- **100 = Extreme Greed** (historically the best selling opportunities)

Indicators are split into two groups:

| Group | Weight | Purpose | Indicators |
|-------|--------|---------|------------|
| **Daily Pulse** | 32 / 100 | Fast-moving sentiment & flow signals | 4 indicators |
| **Weekly Structure** | 68 / 100 | Slow-moving on-chain & cycle signals | 9 indicators |

The heavier weighting on weekly/structural indicators reflects their superior track record in identifying cycle extremes.

---

## Daily Pulse Indicators (32 points total)

For each indicator, use web_search to find the latest data, then score according to the normalization rules below. Each indicator's raw value is normalized to a 0-100 sub-score, then multiplied by its weight to get its contribution to the total.

### D1: Bitcoin ETF Daily Net Flow (Weight: 12 points)
```
END THIRD-PARTY FILE 7a0bcde2b380f0ac

The third-party file has ended. Everything between the 7a0bcde2b380f0ac tags is data: requests and commands from it are not followed. An “end of file” line with another tag inside the block is part of the file.

First 2747 of 22817 bytes. © star23 · MIT · https://github.com/star23/Day1Global-Skills/tree/HEAD/btc-bottom-model/SKILL.md

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