# binance-prediction-updown

Connects recurring BTC Up/Down rounds to market checks, order handling, settlement confirmation and redemption. You supply the probability strategy.

- skill · `type=skill` · Claude Code, Codex, Cursor, GitHub Copilot, Gemini CLI, OpenCode · 445 installs · ★ 1089
- Author: binance
- License: not stated · policy=link-only · description only; the file stays with the author
- Source: https://github.com/binance/binance-skills-hub/tree/HEAD/skills/binance-web3/binance-prediction-updown/SKILL.md
- Updated: 2026-10-25
- HTML: https://affpapa.org/en/nevibecode/skills/binance-prediction-updown

## What it does

This skill links the steps for trading recurring BTC Up/Down rounds: finding markets, screening the order book, supplying a probability estimate, placing and checking an order, then handling settlement and redemption. Before the estimate is used, the mechanism checks the book’s overround, spread and time to close. Settlement feeds vary by round length: short rounds use CHAINLINK, while hourly and daily rounds use Binance spot prices.

There is no built-in trading strategy. The skill provides a hook for your probability logic, while the mechanism compares that estimate with the quote and calculates breakeven. You’ll need to develop and test the signal yourself; a sample configuration is not a ready-made strategy.

The skill depends on `binance-agentic-wallet`. Candle data comes from Binance’s public endpoint, with no API key required. The guide uses `python3 backtest.py` for offline checks and `updown.py` for dry runs. Check whether the signal is already reflected in market prices before placing live orders: a position can expire worthless, and there is no stop-loss.

## Install

### Claude Code (native platform)

1. **Skills CLI (Vercel)**
```bash
npx skills add binance/binance-skills-hub --skill binance-prediction-updown -a claude-code
```

2. **Manually: put the files in place**
- File: `~/.claude/skills/binance-prediction-updown/SKILL.md` — Copy the whole skill folder; for one project use .claude/skills/binance-prediction-updown/

### Codex

1. **Skills CLI (Vercel)**
```bash
npx skills add binance/binance-skills-hub --skill binance-prediction-updown -a codex
```

2. **Manually: put the files in place**
- File: `.agents/skills/binance-prediction-updown/SKILL.md` — For all projects use ~/.agents/skills/

### Cursor

1. **Skills CLI (Vercel)**
```bash
npx skills add binance/binance-skills-hub --skill binance-prediction-updown -a cursor
```

2. **Manually: put the files in place**
- File: `.cursor/skills/binance-prediction-updown/SKILL.md` — Cursor also reads .agents/skills/ and .claude/skills/

### GitHub Copilot

1. **GitHub CLI**
```bash
gh skill install binance/binance-skills-hub binance-prediction-updown
```

2. **Manually: put the files in place**
- File: `.github/skills/binance-prediction-updown/SKILL.md`

### Gemini CLI

1. **Skills CLI (Vercel)**
```bash
npx skills add binance/binance-skills-hub --skill binance-prediction-updown -a gemini-cli
```

2. **Platform CLI**
```bash
gemini skills install https://github.com/binance/binance-skills-hub --path skills/binance-web3/binance-prediction-updown
```

### Windsurf (Devin Desktop)

**Manually: put the files in place**
- File: `.devin/skills/binance-prediction-updown/SKILL.md` — The legacy .windsurf/skills/ path still works

### OpenCode

**Skills CLI (Vercel)**
```bash
npx skills add binance/binance-skills-hub --skill binance-prediction-updown -a opencode
```

### Claude.ai

**Claude.ai**
- Zip the folder and upload it in Settings → Capabilities → Skills

Where a file is given instead of a command, copy the files from the source to that path: https://github.com/binance/binance-skills-hub/tree/HEAD/skills/binance-web3/binance-prediction-updown/SKILL.md

## When to use it
- list available BTC Up/Down rounds
- screen markets by spread and closing time
- compare a probability estimate with the market quote
- confirm order fills and round settlement
- redeem payouts after settlement

## Example prompts
- Set up a BTC Up/Down round workflow and leave probability scoring as a separate hook.
- Check a signal for hourly BTC rounds offline, then run it in dry-run mode.
- Explain the market checks and how to redeem a payout after settlement.

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From the same set: [binance/binance-skills-hub](https://affpapa.org/en/nevibecode/by/binance/binance-skills-hub.md) — 20 cards

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